摘要
在检验果蔬市场内生性的基础上,构建非结构化的向量自回归模型,利用脉冲响应函数分析与方差分解法分析比较了水果与蔬菜之间的相互替代关系。结果表明:由6类果蔬构成的市场是一个近似内生的系统;水果与蔬菜之间存在一定的替代关系,其中,苹果与蔬菜之间的替代关系以及白菜与水果之间的替代关系较强;当一类果蔬价格上涨时,存在替代关系的果蔬之间相互分担价格上涨压力的表现非常明显;蔬菜对水果的替代作用大于水果对蔬菜的替代作用。提出保证果蔬市场上大宗低价果蔬产品的供给是稳定果蔬市场的关键;国家在制定果蔬市场调控措施时应当优先考虑保证居民的"菜篮子"。
This paper adopts Granger causality test to demonstrate the endogenesis of fruit and veg- etable market and constructs the unstructured vector auto-regression model. By the application of the im- pulse response function and variance decomposition method of analysis, this paper analyzes the mutual substitution relations between fruit and vegetables. The research results are as follows：first, the market consisting of six kinds of fruits and vegetables is an endogenous system; second, there are certain substi- tute relations between fruit and vegetables, among which the substitute relation between apple and vege- tables and that between Chinese cabbage and fruit are stronger; fourth,when the price of a fruit and veg- etables is rising, fruit and vegetables having substitute relations will mutually share rising price pres- sures; finally,the substitution effect of vegetables to fruit is bigger than the other way round. There- fore,this paper draws conclusions that to ensure the mass supply of low price fruit and vegetables is the key to stabilize the fruit and vegetables market,and residents＇ ＂vegetable basket＂ should be given first priority when making fruit and vegetables market regulation measures.
出处
《华中农业大学学报（社会科学版）》
CSSCI
2014年第5期60-67,共8页
Journal of Huazhong Agricultural University(Social Sciences Edition)
基金
国家现代农业(柑橘)产业技术体系(MATS)专项(CARS-27-07B)
高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金"中国农产品价格传导及其收益分配机制研究"(20110146110008)
中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金"小农户如何与大市场对接:交易关系及其治理机制研究"(2012MBDX002)
关键词
水果
蔬菜
内生性
替代关系
VAR模型
fruit
vegetables
endogenesis
substitution relatiom VAR mode.
