摘要
基于全国6个城市1340户家庭饮食消费调查数据,本文实证分析了人口老龄化对畜禽肉类消费的影响,并据此模拟了人口老龄化对我国未来肉类消费需求的可能影响。研究结果表明:人口老龄化显著影响居民人均肉类消费量,家庭中60岁以上老年人比例每增加l%会导致家庭人均肉类消费量减少0.5%;同时,模拟分析结果表明,如果不考虑人口老龄化因素,会导致对2030年我国肉类消费需求量高估约5.6%。研究结果对于分析我国社会老龄化背景下的肉类需求及由此导致的食物安全与饲料粮安全问题、以及相关政策制定具有重要意义。
Based on data collected from the survey on 1340 urban households in 6 cities,this paper quantifies the impact of demographic changes on household meat consumption,with particular interest in aging effect,and simulates the meat consumption trends under the condition of population aging in future.The results indicate that demographic affects household meat consumption significantly;an increase of 1% increase of old people（over 60 years old） in a household will cause the average quantity of per capita meat consumption of that household to decrease 0.5% .The simulation suggests that estimated meat demand without considering aging effect in 2030 will be 5.6% higher than the actual demand.The findings from this study have important implications for understanding China＇s demand for meat,feed grain,and the potential challenges for China food security.
出处
《中国软科学》
CSSCI
北大核心
2014年第11期17-26,共10页
China Soft Science
基金
中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金(2014RC017)
国家自然科学基金项目(71273009和71222302)资助
关键词
肉类消费
人口结构
人口老龄化
粮食安全
meat consumption
family composition
population aging
food security
