摘要
根据上海市2006—2012年青菜逐日价格资料及同期气象资料,应用统计方法分析了气象条件与青菜价格涨跌幅度的关系。结果表明:(1)6—9月份青菜价格涨幅与暴雨日数、降水量、日降水量≥80 mm日数有极显著的正相关关系。全市暴雨累计日数(t)与青菜价格涨跌幅度(ΔP,%)的关系式为ΔP=8.209t-21.36。(2)台风过程降水量、暴雨日数、大暴雨日数、平均最大风速等与青菜价格涨幅均呈现显著正相关。台风降水量(R)×风速(F)与青菜价格涨跌幅度(ΔP,%)的关系式为ΔP=41.69R×F-20.16。(3)12月份至次年1月份气温高青菜价格下跌;平均气温≤0℃日数、降水量、日均日照时数≤3 h的日数多则价格涨幅较大。降水量(R)/气温(T)与青菜价格涨跌幅度(ΔP,%)的关系式为ΔP=0.439R/T-30.56。(4)3—5月份及10—11月份的日照时数(S)多、气温(T)高,青菜价格下跌。春季的关系式为ΔP=-27.8 ln(S×T)+23.97;秋季的关系式为ΔP=-15.1ln(S×T)-9.308。
According to the data of daily price of Chinese cabbage and meteorological data in Shanghai from 2006 to 2012, the relationship between meteorological conditions and the Chinese cabbage price was analyzed by statistical method. The results showed as follows： （1） There was significantly positive correlation between rainstorm days（t） ,rainfall capacity, daily rainfall capacity≥80 mm days and the amount of Chinese cabbage price increase（△P, %）from June to September, with the relation equation △P = 8. 209t -21.36. （2）There was significant positive correlation between the typhoon rainfall capacity（R ）, rainstorm days, heavy rainstorm days, average maximum wind speed（F） and Chinese cabbage price,with the relation equation Ap = 41.69R × F - 20.16. （3）The Chinese cabbage price fell because of high temperature（ T）from December to January of next year. The more average temperature≤0℃ days,rainfall capacity（R）, average sunshine-hours≤3 h days, the higher Chinese cabbage price rised. The relation equation is △P = 0. 439R/T- 30.56. （4）The Chinese cabbage price fell because of more sunshine-hours（S）and higher temperature（T） from March to May and October to November. The logarithm regression equation are△P = - 27.81n（S × T） ＋ 23.97 in spring and △P = - 15. 11n（S × T） - 9.308 in autumn,respectively.
出处
《上海农业学报》
CSCD
北大核心
2014年第5期114-119,共6页
Acta Agriculturae Shanghai
基金
公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201006028
GYHY200906023)
关键词
青菜
价格
气象条件
关系模型
Chinese cabbage
Price
Meteorological conditions
Relational model
