摘要
2014年美国中期选举是一次针对奥巴马执政绩效的民意公投,也是一次有利于共和党的选举回摆。在中期选举历史惯性、选举议题发散分布、奥巴马民众满意度低迷,以及共和党竞选策略奏效等因素的交互影响下,共和党得以在国会两院占据多数席位,与奥巴马政府形成所谓的"强分立"府会格局。基于这一状况,美国国内政治对峙与极化的态势将会延续下去,新一届国会将继续与奥巴马在内政外交领域展开缠斗,这无疑扭曲着国家利益,令美式民主陷入深深的迷思。就对华政策而言,新一届国会将延续其扰乱中美关系稳步、健康发展的"不和谐背景音"角色:在分立府会下共和党主导的国会可能在经贸和军事安全意义上助力奥巴马的"亚太再平衡"战略,在经贸、中国周边安全、人权等议题上为中美关系带来不必要的成本;而关键委员会及其领导层、关键非正式连线组织、关键涉华议员的调整与变动,也在一定程度上增加了国会采取消极涉华行为的可能性。
As a referendum on the Obama presidency,the 2014 Midterm Elections yielded the result that the Republican gained electoral swings. Several factors-historical inertia for President's party to lose Congressional seats during midterms,fragmented electionsissues,Obama's low job approval ratings,and the successful GOP campaign strategies-helped Republican Party assume majority control of both chambers of U. S. Congress,and produced strongly divided government. Consequently, the Washington partisan stalemate will exist in a long term,and the newly-elected Congress will continue to battle with President Obama on vital domestic and foreign issues,which undoubtedly will distort the national interest,leaving the nation to rethink about American democracy deeply and seriously. For U. S. China policy,the Congress will still maintain as 'discordant background sounds'which disrupt the steady and healthy development of Sino-US relations. The divided government with Republican majority in Congress will push forward the rebalancing strategy toward the Asia-Pacific in the economic and security areas,bringing unnecessary cost with trade,regional security and human rights issues to the bilateral relations. Moreover,the shift of key congressional committees and their leadership,key congressional caucuses and congressional members related to China will,to some extent,increase the possibility of the negative influence of the 114th Congress on China issue.
出处
《美国研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2014年第6期25-50,5-6,共26页
The Chinese Journal of American Studies
基金
国家社会科学基金青年项目"美国国会涉华关键议员行为研究"(编号为13CGJ041)的阶段性成果
