摘要
利用我国2000—2012年的省际面板数据,构建面板数据向量自回归(Panel Data Vector Autoregression,PVAR)模型,研究城镇化、经济增长和产业转移的互动关系。实证结果表明,经济发展和产业转移对城镇化率有积极的作用,城镇化率与经济发展、经济发展与产业转移互为格兰杰因果关系,但是城镇化率与产业转移不具有格兰杰因果关系。城镇化率对经济发展的冲击影响具有当期效应,经济发展与产业转移对城镇化的冲击影响滞后一期,而贡献性方面,城镇化水平受自身影响较大。因此,要注重优化经济环境,专注过程监控,把握城镇化契机。
This paper uses the inter-provincial panel data in China from 2000 to 2012 to study the interactive relationship among urbanization, economic development and industry transferred by PVAR model. It is found that economic development and industrial transfer has a positive effect on the rate of urbanization. The rate of urbanization and economic development, economic development and industrial transfer are mutual Granger causality. Urbanization rate shocks on economic development has the current effect, while the shocks of economic development and industrial transfer for urbanization have lag phase. In terms of Contribution, urbanization is influenced by itself mostly. The economic and ecological environment should be optimized. Process monitoring should be focused. The opportunity of urbanization should be seized.
出处
《莆田学院学报》
2014年第6期36-41,共6页
Journal of putian University
关键词
城镇化
经济发展
产业转移
PVAR模型
urbanization
economic development
industry transfer
PVAR model
