摘要
目的利用已有的流行性感冒(流感)监测数据制定北京市怀柔区流感预警模型,从而更加科学有效地预警流感的暴发与流行。方法通过对北京市怀柔区第一医院、怀柔区中医院2010—2013年的流感监测资料进行统计分析,确定流感监测基线和预警线。结果流感样病例(ILI)百分比与流感病毒阳性率变化较为一致,均于冬春季出现高峰,两者Spearman相关系数r=0.545,流感预警模型具有一定的指导意义。结论怀柔区流感三级预警模型具有较好的可操作性,简单易行,为基层机构科学防控流感提供依据。
[Objective]To formulate the influenza early warning model of Huairou District in Beijing by using the existing influenza surveillance data,scientifically and effectively carry out the early warning on outbreak and epidemic of influenza. [Methods]The influenza surveillance data from the First People＇s Hospital of Huairou and the Traditional Chinese Medical Hospital during2010-2013 were collected to determine the baseline and warning line of influenza monitoring.[Results]The percentage of influenza like illness（ILI） was consistent with the positive rate of influenza virus,which the peaks appeared in winter and spring.Spearman parameter was 0.545. The influenza early warning model had the practical significance. [Conclusion]The three-level influenza early warning model is simple and practicable with better operability,and can provide the scientific basis for prevention and control of influenza for the basic-level medical institutions.
出处
《职业与健康》
CAS
2015年第1期100-102,共3页
Occupation and Health
关键词
流感
监测
预警模型
Influenza
Surveillance
Early warning model
