摘要
基于2011～2012年河蟹养殖生态、气象观测资料，对河蟹不同生长断面的体重、水温、蟹龄之间的相互关系进行分析，利用多元回归方法建立了河蟹平均体重预测模型。根据不同层次水温与气温的相关关系，建立了利用气温预测水温的模型。研究结果表明：（1）在相同管理措施下，水温是河蟹生长快慢的影响因子，河蟹生长最快的时期对应的平均水温为25～28℃，这也是河蟹进化过程中适应自然季节变化的结果；（2）4～8月份河蟹平均体重与水温相关性较好，采用回归方法，可构建河蟹不同生长期平均体重预测模型；对2012年的预测结果与实际观测资料对比分析表明，预测值与实测值较为接近；（3）前3日滑动平均气温与各层水温的线性相关关系最好，可利用该指标预测各层水温，进而预测河蟹不同生长期平均体重。
According to the ecological and meteorological observation data in crab breeding during 2011~2012 , the author ana-lyzed the mutual relations among crab’s body weight, water temperature, and crab’s age at different growth stages, and established the predictive model of crab ’ s average body weight by using multiple regression method .In addition, the predictive model of water temperature through air temperature was built based on the relationship between water temperature at various layers and air tempera -ture.The research results indicated that：（1） Under the same management measures , water temperature was a factor affecting the growth rate of crab .The crab grew fastest when the average water temperature was 25~28 ℃.（ 2） There was a good correlation be-tween crab ’ s average body weight and water temperature from April to August .The predictive model of crab ’ s average body weight at various growth stages could be constructed by using regression method , and the predictive value obtained by this model was rela-tively close to the actual value in the year 2012.（3） The 3-day moving average air temperature was best correlated with the water temperature at various layers;this index could be used to predict the water temperature at various layers , and further forecast the av-erage body weight of crab at different growth stages .
出处
《江西农业学报》
CAS
2015年第4期88-93,共6页
Acta Agriculturae Jiangxi
基金
2010年度科技部公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201006029)
关键词
河蟹
生长速度
体重
生态
气象
预测模型
Crab
Growth rate
Body weight
Ecology
Meteorology
Predictive model
