摘要
文章研究出行需求不确定环境下的拥挤收费问题,采用均值-超量系统总阻抗作为风险评价指标.均值-超量系统总阻抗风险指标,既能够保证系统总阻抗以一定的置信水平α小于决策者的预算,又保证当实际系统总阻抗超过决策者预算时引起的超量延误的均值最小,因此将它作为拥挤收费模型的目标函数能够更加全面地刻画不确定环境下系统总阻抗的分布特征.本文以最小化均值-超量系统总阻抗作为拥挤收费的目标,建立需求不确定条件下的拥挤收费模型.该模型能够更好地反映决策者面对不精确的出行需求数据的风险态度.通过蒙特卡洛模拟的方式将其转化为确定性的模型,降低了求解的复杂性.通过算例分析可得,与期望值模型相比,该模型具有更强的适应性.
This paper considers congestion road pricing with demand uncertainty,and uses the mean-excess total travel time as the system risk measure. Mean-excess total travel time can consider both the reliability and the unreliability of total travel time,and so it is a more complete risk measure. Because the model in this paper with stochastic demand is difficult to solve,we turn it to a deterministic model through Monte Carlo simulation,and solve it with the genetic algorithm. A numerical example is presented to illustrate the model and compare it with the expected value model. It shows our model is more appropriate for risk-aversion deciders.At last,we demonstrate the stability of the algorithm through examining the effect of the parameters to the solution.
出处
《管理科学学报》
CSSCI
北大核心
2015年第1期32-40,共9页
Journal of Management Sciences in China
基金
国家重点基础研究发展计划资助项目(2012CB725401)
国家自然科学基金资助项目(71071014)
中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目(2013JBM044)
