摘要
以人口普查数据、土地利用变化数据为主要数据源,分析了2000—2010年安徽省人口(尤其是流动人口)和耕地资源的空间变化格局,采用空间耦合度模型衡量人口与耕地资源的空间耦合发展,结合安徽省潜山县实地调研情况,揭示人口流动对安徽省人口—耕地资源关系的影响。研究发现,2000—2010年安徽省超过90%的县市流出人口呈增加趋势,流出人口量大且增加快的区域主要分布在耕地资源集中的安徽省北部与中部地区;由于人口的大量流出,安徽省人口—耕地资源耦合关系从以强解耦关系为主转变为以负解耦关系为主,人口—耕地资源的紧张状况得以缓解。但通过潜山县的实地调研发现,农村青壮劳动力的大量流出、土地流转率低致使部分耕地资源被撂荒。研究结果警示,针对粮食主产区的农村人口大量流出问题应加快农村土地政策改革,引导土地经营权的有序流转,加快农业产业结构调整,维持农业可持续发展和保障国家粮食安全。
Based on the census data and land use change data,this paper analyzed the spatio-temporal change of population,especially the migrant population,and the cropland in Anhui Province from 2000 to 2010. Moreover,a spatial coupling model was adopted to measure the spatial coupling development of population and cropland land. Combined with the on-site investigation data in Qianshan County of Anhui Province,the impacts of population migration on the relationship between population and cropland were revealed. The research found that： From 2000 to 2010,more than 90% of the counties in Anhui Province showed an increasing in emigrant population,and those counties with a large amount and a high increasing rate in emigrant population mostly distributed in the northern and central region. Due to the emigration,the relationship between population and cropland transferred from strong decoupling to negative decoupling,and this indicated that the tense situation in cropland shortage was relieved.However,the on-site investigation also found that a portion of cropland was abandoned due to the large workforce loss and slow land circulation.This paper suggested that it should pay more attention to the enormous countryside population emigrantion. The land use policy reformation in the rural areas should be accelerated,for guiding an ordered land management right circulation and fasten the adjustment of agriculture industry structure,thus to maintain the sustainable development of agriculture and guarantee the grain security of the nation.
出处
《资源开发与市场》
CAS
CSSCI
2015年第8期952-955,F0002,共5页
Resource Development & Market
基金
国家科技支撑计划课题(编号:2012BAI32B07
2012BAI32B06)
国家自然科学基金项目(编号:41271173)
关键词
人口流动
耕地变化
耦合度模型
population migration
cropland change
coupling model
