摘要
为了揭示吉林省粮食单产变化的时序特征及其决定因素,利用1998—2013年吉林省的相关数据,基于改进的拉氏因素分解方法构建了粮食单产变化的因素分解模型,从作物和区域两个角度对吉林省粮食单产变化进行了定量分解。结果表明,研究期吉林省粮食单产发生明显波动,并呈下降趋势,但单产的波动性有所降低;从单产变化的作物贡献看,玉米的单产变化效应最大,对全省单产变化的平均贡献率达到123.61%;从单产变化的区域贡献看,长春、松原、四平发挥了主导作用,其中长春市对全省粮食单产变化的贡献最大;从生产力效应和结构效应的综合作用看,生产力效应是粮食单产变化的决定性因素,研究期内的平均贡献率达到99.76%,而粮食结构效应贡献很小,平均贡献率只有0.24%。
In order to reveal the temporal characteristics and determinant factors of the change of grain yield per hectare in Jilin Province, tactor decomposition model was build based on Rened Laspeyres Index Method（RLI）, and the change of grain yield per hectare was decomposed from crop and region perspectives using related date from 1998 to 2013 .The results were as follows：The change of grain yield per hectare showed a fluctuated decreasing trend, but the volatility was decreasing. From the perspective of the crop, the impact of corn was most important for the change of grain yield per hectare, and the average contribution rate was 123.61 % . From the perspective of the region, Changchun, Songyuan and Siping City played a leading role, among three cities, the contribution of Changchun City was largest. From the view of the combined effects of productivity effect and struc- tural effect, productivity effect was the decisive factor for the change of grain yield per hectare, its average contribution rate was 99.76%, and the av- erage contribution of structural effect was very small and its contribution rate was 0.24 %.
出处
《资源开发与市场》
CAS
CSSCI
2015年第10期1200-1203,1232,共5页
Resource Development & Market
基金
河北省社会科学基金资助项目"区域耕地资源压力动态变化与调控策略"(编号:HB12YJ077)
关键词
粮食单产
因素分解
RLI
吉林省
grain yield per hectare
factor decomposition
Rened Laspeyres Index Method
Jilin Province
