摘要
为了给中国交通运输行业节能减排政策的制定提供参考,基于对数平均权重法（LMDI）分解方法,通过将中国交通运输行业分成公路运输、水路运输、铁路运输和民航运输等4种交通运输方式,定量分析了2005~2011年间行业碳排放变化的主要影响因素。结果表明：人均GDP的增加是行业碳排放增长的主要促进因素,而代表能源利用效率的交通运输能源强度和代表运输效率的交通运输强度的下降对碳排放表现为抑制效应;公路运输对行业碳排放变化的影响十分显著,这不仅体现在公路运输在交通运输中的高占比对行业碳排放显著的促进作用,还体现在公路运输单耗水平下降对碳排放显著的抑制作用;未来,公路运输单耗水平下降、能源消费结构清洁化对行业碳排放的抑制作用会越来越显著。
In order to provide references for the energy-saving and emission-reduction policies formulation in China＇s transportation industry,based on Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index（LMDI）decomposition method,transportation industry in China was divided into highway,waterway,railway and civil aviation to quantitatively analyze the impact factors of carbon emission change in transportation industry during 2005 to 2011.The results show that the increase of per capita GDP appears the main promoting factor to carbon emission increment in transportation industry.The dropping of energy intensity of transportation and transportation intensity,which indicate energy using efficiency and transportation efficiency respectively,presents the carbon emission reduction effect.In addition,highway transportation has a significant effect on carbon emission change in transportation industry,which is not only reflected by the driving force of highway transportation＇s dominance in transportation industry,but also reflected by the remarkable inhibiting effect of the energy intensity decrement in highway transportation.In the future,the curbing effects of energy intensity＇s decrement and energyconsumption structure cleaning in highway transportation will become more and more significant.
出处
《中国公路学报》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2015年第10期112-119,共8页
China Journal of Highway and Transport
基金
中国低碳发展宏观战略课题(20155501001)
关键词
交通工程
交通运输碳排放
LMDI分解方法
碳排放变化
traffic engineering
carbon emission in transportation industry
LMDI decomposition method
carbon emission change
