摘要
在全球气候变暖的大背景下,锡林郭勒盟干旱灾害频发,给农牧业生产和人民生活等造成了严重的影响和损失,分析其干旱的时空特征和规律,能为防灾减灾提供借鉴。基于全盟15个气象站点1960-2013年的逐月降水资料,计算了12个月和3个月尺度的标准化降水指数,分析了年度和季节干旱演变规律,并应用主成份分析和空间插值方法分析了干旱的空间特征。结果表明:(1)锡林郭勒盟的年度与季节的干旱均较为频繁且持续时间较长,各尺度干旱频率均为30%左右,干旱等级主要为轻旱和中旱,重旱和特旱频率较低;年度与夏季干旱站次比和干旱强度呈增加和增强趋势,春季、秋季和冬季的干旱站次比和干旱强度呈减少和减轻趋势。(2)前4个特征向量的空间分布与锡林郭勒盟4大类植被覆盖区域基本一致,即农牧交错区、荒漠草原区、典型草原区和草甸草原区,4个区域的干旱时段存在很强的一致性,且均存在干旱化趋势,干旱强度为荒漠草原区>典型草原区>农牧交错区>草甸草原区,4个区域的干旱频率和干旱站次比基本一致。
In the background of global warming, drought disasters happened caused serious impact and losses of the agricultural and livestock production frequently in Xilingol League, which and human life. Analyzing the spatio- temporal characteristics of the drought can provide a reference for disaster prevention and mitigation. Based on the monthly precipitation data of 15 meteorological stations in the whole league from 1960 - 2013, the standardized pre- cipitation indices of 12 months and 3 months scales were calculated, the drought evolution laws in yearly and sea- sonal scales were analyzed, and the spatial characteristics of regional drought was also analyzed with principal com- ponent analysis and spatial interpolation methods. Conclusions include ： （ 1 ） the yearly and seasonal drought of the league are getting more frequent and tend to last longer, with drought frequency of each scale being about 30%, and the drought being mainly in light and middle levels, heavy drought and serious drought frequency being lower. Summer and yearly drought station ratio and drought intensity show a trend of increase and aggravation, while spring, autumn and winter drought have trends of reduction and mitigation. （2） The spatial distribution of first four eigenvalue vectors is mainly consistent with the four kinds of vegetation cover regions of Xilingol League, namely the farming - pastoral zone, desert steppe zone, typical steppe zone and meadow steppe zone. Four regional drought periods are strongly consistent, all having the drought trends, drought intensity sequencing being desert steppe zone 〉 typical steppe zone 〉 farming- pastoral zone 〉 meadow steppe zone. Drought frequency and drought stationratio of four regions are almost unanimous.
出处
《自然灾害学报》
CSCD
北大核心
2015年第5期119-128,共10页
Journal of Natural Disasters
基金
中国农业科学院草原研究所创新团队项目(CAAS-ASTIP-IGR2015-04)
国家科技支撑计划子课题(2013BAK05B01)
内蒙古师范大学科研基金项目(2013ZRYB02)资助~~
关键词
锡林郭勒盟
标准化降水指数(SPI)
干旱
评估指标
时空特征
Xilingol League
standardized precipitation index
drought
evaluation index
temporal and spatial characteristics
