摘要
随着中国投资环境的变化,近年来跨国企业从华撤资的现象时有发生;然而,这些撤资却存在"迟滞"现象。文章从实物期权的视角,以日本的跨国企业为样本,利用Cox比例风险模型,对影响跨国企业从华撤资"迟滞"的因素进行了实证检验。研究表明:(1)所在行业的需求不确定性与投资不可逆性影响了日本跨国企业的从华撤资决策,投资不可逆性越高与需求不确定性越大,日本跨国企业从华撤资时越有可能发生"迟滞";(2)跨国企业的投资不可逆性和多元化程度对不确定性影响撤资"迟滞"具有调节作用,投资不可逆性强化了不确定性对撤资"迟滞"的正向影响,而日本跨国企业在华的多元化程度则弱化了这种影响;(3)分支机构的冗余性和灵活性对跨国企业从华撤资"迟滞"都具有正向影响,即日本跨国企业在华分支机构的冗余性和灵活性都提高了分支机构被撤出的风险。文章的研究结论不仅有助于跨国企业理性地对待东道国市场的不确定性,避免盲目地撤出东道国,而且有助于跨国企业选择合理的撤出对象,优化在东道国的分支机构组合。
With the changes in investment environment in China, the divestments of MNEs happen frequently in recent years; however, there is hysteresis as for divestments of MNEs from China. From a perspective of real options, this paper empirically examines the factors affecting the divestment hysteresis of MNEs from China based on the sample of Japanese MNEs and Cox proportional hazard model. It comes to the results as follows： firstly, industry demand uncertainty and investment irreversibility affect Japanese MNEs＇ decisions of divestment from China; higher investment irreversibility and larger demand uncertainty result in higher possibility of the divestment hysteresis of Japanese MNEs from China; secondly, investment irreversibility and diversification of MNEs play a moderating role in the effect of uncertainty on divestment hysteresis, namely investment irreversibility strengthens the positive effect of uncertainty on divestment hysteresis but diversification weakens this effect; thirdly, both redundancy and flexibility of the affiliates have positive effects on the divestment hysteresis of MNEs from China, namely, both redundancy and flexibility of affiliates of Japanese MNEs in China enhance affiliates＇ hazards of divesting. The results are not only helpful for MNEs to treat uncertainty rationally of their host countries＇ markets and avoid divestment blindly from current host countries, but also con- ducive for MNEs to the selection of appropriate divestment objects and the optimization of their affiliate portfolio within the host country.
出处
《财经研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2015年第11期71-82,共12页
Journal of Finance and Economics
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(71272015)
上海市哲学社会科学规划课题(2014BGL007)
