摘要
[目的]为了研究钱塘江年极值高潮位的预测难题,提高预测的精度。[方法]以钱塘江澉浦水文站为例,根据澉浦水文站1951~2002年极值高潮位的时间序列进行特征分析,选取一组阈值,建立对应阈值下时间序列的GM（1,1）模型群,经过后验差和小误差概率方法检验后,对未来的年极值高潮位进行预测。利用2003~2014年极值高潮位对模型的预测结果进行检验,最后对2015~2021年极值高潮位进行预测。[结果]该模型预测值与实测值相吻合,具有较高的精度。[结论]该研究可为相关部门的潮灾准确预报提供一定的理论依据。
[ Objective ] The research aimed to study the prediction problems about annual maximum tidal level of Qiangtang River, and improve forecast accuracy. [ Method ] Taking Ganpu hydrological station in the Qiantang River for example, on the basis of analyzing characteristics of time-series distribution of hydrologic data from 1951 -2002, GM（ 1,1 ） model in groups according to the time-series was established by selecting a group of threshold values. After posteriori error and small error probability method checking, the model was used to predict the an- nual maximum tidal level in the next several years. The forecast results of the model were tested by the annual maximum tidal level from 2013 to 2014, and the values were forecasted from 2015 to 2021. [ Result] The model agreed with the measured values, and had higher precision. [ Conclusion] The forecast results are of a certain guiding significance to relative departments for tide disaster forecast.
出处
《安徽农业科学》
CAS
2015年第32期15-17,共3页
Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(61374005)
浙江省自然科学基金项目(LY14F030022)
关键词
极值高潮位
灰色系统
拓扑预测
GM(1
1)模型
Annual maximum tidal level
Grey system
Topological forecast
GM （ 1,1 ） model
