摘要
人口要素作为一切经济活动的主体,在以人为核心的新型城镇化进程中发挥着尤为重要的作用。人口集聚为城镇化提供重要动力,而城镇化进程将进一步促进人口集聚,人口要素与城镇化进程通过经济、社会、文化和环境等方面深度融合,形成密不可分、相互促进的系统。本文构建关联协调度模型分析近15年来我国人口集聚与城镇化协调发展的状况。结果显示,我国的人口集聚水平和城镇化进程由不协调逐步转向协调发展,即初期在传统城镇化阶段,人口集聚水平落后于城镇化水平,而在后期的新型城镇化阶段,人口集聚开始引领新型城镇化发展。通过改善人口城乡结构、人口教育结构、人口就业结构和人口收入结构可以有效缓解人口年龄结构带来的隐患,这将是未来一段时期内人口集聚与城镇化继续协调发展的关键所在。
As the main body of all economic activities, the demographic factors play a very important role in the urbanization process. Population gathering is an important driving force for urbanization, and the process of urbanization will further promote the population gathering. The process of population and urbanization integrate through economical, social, cultural and environmental aspects and form an inseparable, mutual promotion system. In this paper, the model of relevance coordination between population gathering and urbanization is built, which shows that in the beginning period population gathering level lags behind urban- ization level. While in the later period population gathering level began to lead the development of urbanization. By improving the population structure of urban and rural areas, education, employment, income and other aspects can effectively ease the population age structure, which will be the key to the development of population and urbanization in the next period of time.
出处
《人口学刊》
CSSCI
北大核心
2016年第2期40-48,共9页
Population Journal
基金
国家社会科学基金项目:新型城镇化进程中县城的突出作用与发展机制研究(14BJL122)
关键词
人口集聚
城镇化
协调发展
Population Gathering, Urbanization, Coordinated Development
