摘要
国内矿业项目并购是一项充满风险的投资活动,其中财务风险是其成功与否的重要因素,因此,对国内矿业项目并购的财务风险进行预警评价具有重要意义.首先采用专家调查法对财务风险的主要影响因素进行了识别;其次建立了风险预警评价指标体系,采用德尔菲法确定了预警评价指标的权重;最后将云模型引入到物元分析中,建立了基于云物元模型的国内矿业项目并购财务风险预警评价模型,并将模型运用到实际案例中,利用Matlab软件编程计算出各评价指标的隶属度,得出该案例并购财务风险等级为一般,预警信号为黄灯,评价结果与实际较为吻合.
M＆A of mining projects is an investment activity full of risks, among which, financial risk is an important factor determining its success. Therefore, it is of great significance on financial warning risk assessment on mining projects＇ M＆A. The major influence factors on financial risk identified by expert investigation method at first; followed by establishing a risk warning assessment index system and defining the index weights by Delphi. Cloud model is introduced to measure the matter element analysis. A financial risk assessment model based on cloud matter element is established to measure the financial risk of mining projects＇ M＆A. The model is then applied to practical cases by calculating the membership degree with Matlab software. The M＆A financial risk level of the subjected case is at an ordinary level with yellow warning signal. The evaluation results are consistent with the practice.
出处
《有色金属科学与工程》
CAS
2016年第1期102-107,共6页
Nonferrous Metals Science and Engineering
基金
国家社会科学基金资助项目(12CGL008)
江西省高校人文社会科学研究项目(JJ1221)
关键词
矿业并购
财务风险
预警评价
云物元模型
Merging ＆ Acquisition of mining industry
financial risk
early warning assessment
cloud matter element model
