摘要
产业结构变动、对外贸易开放与经济增长不仅仅是单向关系,有可能是双向关系甚至三者构成循环系统机制。本文在建立VEC模型的基础上,使用协整检验、格兰杰因果检验、脉冲响应函数以及方差分解,对福建省经济发展、产业结构高级化和贸易开放度三者关系进行实证研究,结果表明:产业结构优化和贸易开放提升均能拉动经济增长,同时在短期内产业结构优化对经济发展的影响强于贸易开放的提升。基于这一研究结论,福建省应当充分利用好产业结构高级化与扩大贸易开放这一双轮驱动力,努力把握自贸区建设这一重大政策机遇,从扩大贸易开放度、优化投融资环境和加快两岸自贸区对接等方面入手,大力促进新常态下福建省经济的健康稳健增长。
The changes of industrial structures,the opening degree of trade and the growth of the economy are not only one-way development relations,but also maybe both-way development relations,even developing into a system of circulation. Based on VEC model,using Johansen co-integration tests,the Granger causality test,impulse respone and variance decomposition to study empirically the relations among the growth of the economy of Fujian province,the industrial structure upgrading,the trade openness shows that both the bettering of industrial structures and the increasing of the degree of the opening degree of trades can promote the growth of the economy,and that at the same time,in a short time,the influence of the bettering of industrial structures is stronger than that of the increasing of the opening degree of trades. On the basis of this study result,Fujian province had better take advantage of these two promoting factors,grasp the significant chance of the construction of Fujian pilot tree trade zone,increase the opening degree of trade,improve the environment of investment,and promote the relations between the mainland pilot free trade zone and Taiwan pilot free trade zone. Fujian province had better boost the growth of the economy moderately in this new chance.
出处
《福建师范大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》
CSSCI
北大核心
2016年第2期29-36,224,共8页
Journal of Fujian Normal University:Philosophy and Social Sciences Edition
基金
2014年国家社科基金重点项目<国企红利征缴比例倍增目标下的国资预算支出民生化研究>(编号:14AGL007)
2013年国家社科基金青年项目<公共资源收益合理共享视角下的国有企业红利分配研究>(编号:13CGL024)
2013年教育部人文社科项目<民生财政导向下的国有资本经营预算支出结构与绩效评价研究>(编号:13YJA630007)
