摘要
当前,国际油气市场已经进入新一轮的低油价周期,方兴未艾的中国天然气市场也未能独善其身,及时研究市场发展态势、积极寻求应对策略便成为当务之急。为此,以在我国天然气市场中占有非常重要地位和具有代表性的川渝气区为研究对象,从天然气产业链市场可持续发展的视角,分析了新常态和低油价条件下中国天然气市场的发展态势,具体表现为:(1)天然气市场改革不断深化;(2)市场主体竞争加剧;(3)供大于求;(4)外销任务艰巨;(5)地方政府对供气企业"三留"(留GDP、留税、留利)诉求凸显;(6)低成本战略成为油气企业的必选项。进而提出了"十三五"期间的应对策略:(1)健全和完善天然气产业市场体系,加强供给侧改革,创新市场开发模式,推进政府相关产业政策的出台;(2)在国家大力推进节能减排、治理雾霾背景下,通过与地方政府和竞争性企业建立天然气终端市场战略联盟,发展工业园区、LNG车船燃料、天然气分布式能源等高效的利用产业集群,创新营销策略体系,强化资源消费本地化;(3)健全和完善蛛网式管网系统,建立市场战略储备体系;(4)越是在低油价背景下,越要深化内部改革,越要依靠技术创新和管理创新,可持续地降低成本,以此应对天然气市场变革。
The world oil and gas market has entered a new period of low oil prices, which has inevitably affected the natural gas market in China. So, it is urgent to timely study the market trends and to actively seek for appropriate countermeasures. In this paper, the development trends of China＇s gas market under the situations of New Normal and low oil prices were analyzed from the perspective of sustainable development of the natural gas industry chain and market, by taking the Sichuan and Chongqing gas provinces as an example, which are of representative and of great significance to China in its natural gas market. The following trends were identified. First, the gas market reform will be deepened. Second, the competition among major market players will be intensified. Third, supply will exceed demand. Fourth, export tasks will be difficult. Fifth, higher demand of ＂guarantees of the minimum GDP, tax and profit＂ will be raised for local government. And sixth, low-cost strategy will be indispensable to oil and gas enterprises. In order to cater to these trends, some countermeasures were presented during the 13-（th） Five-Year Plan. First, to improve the natural gas market system, to strengthen the supply-side reform, to innovate market development modes, and to promote the introduction of governmental policies for relevant industries. Second, to develop the efficient gas-consuming clusters such as industrial parks, LNG-fueled vehicles and vessels, and distributed energy sources system, to establish innovative marketing strategy systems, and to boost the localization of resource consumption, through the establishment of strategic alliances for natural gas terminal markets in partnership with local governments and competitive enterprises, while the Chinese government is intensifying efforts in promoting energy conservation and pollution reduction and haze control. Third, to improve the cobweb pipeline network system, and to establish the strategic reserve system. And fourth, to make greater efforts to deepen internal reforms, to cut costs in a sustainable way through technological and managerial innovation, so as to respond to any changes in the natural gas market as a result of low oil prices.
出处
《天然气工业》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2016年第4期1-7,共7页
Natural Gas Industry
关键词
新常态
低油价
中国
天然气市场
产业链
市场变革
应对策略
川渝气区
New Normal
Low oil prices
China
Natural gas market
Industry chain
Market changes
Countermeasures
Sichuan and Chongqing gas provinces
