摘要
稳定性系数评价滑坡稳定状况存在一定的缺陷性,将其与破坏概率分析结果相结合能够对滑坡稳定性状况作出合理可靠的评价。在分析府谷县新府山安居小区滑坡基本特征及成因机制的基础上,对滑坡在不同工况下的稳定性系数进行计算。考虑滑坡岩土体参数的变异系数和偏度系数,利用蒙特卡洛法(Monte-Carlo)对滑坡的破坏概率进行了计算。最终,将稳定性系数与破坏概率相结合,对滑坡的稳定状态做出了评价。结果表明,该滑坡在天然状态下处于基本稳定状态,而在暴雨或持续强降雨情况下,滑坡发生破坏的概率较大。
The evaluation of landslide stability by factor of stability has certain defects, together with the failure probability analysis it can make reasonable and reliable evaluation on stability of landslide. Based on the comprehensive analyses of basic characteristics and the formation mechanism of the Xinfushan Anju District of Landslide in Fugu County, this research calculated its factor of stability under different conditions. Considering the coefficient of variation of rock mass parameters and coefficient of skewness, Monte-Carlo method was further adopted to obtain the failure probability of landslide. Finally by combining the stability factor and probability, the stable state of the landslide was evaluated. Results show that the landslide under natural condition is stable state, but the landslide are likely to occur failure under heavy rain or persistent heavy rains.
出处
《水利与建筑工程学报》
2016年第2期100-103,共4页
Journal of Water Resources and Architectural Engineering
基金
陕西省自然科学基金项目(2012JM5008)
关键词
滑坡
参数变异性
蒙特卡洛法
破坏概率
landslide
variability of parameters
Monte-Carlo method
failure probability
