摘要
行政边界如何影响城市用地规模?论文以京津冀为研究案例,基于结构方程构建5个时段(1990、1995、2000、2005、2010年)的城市用地行政边界效应模型,揭示行政边界影响下城市用地的扩张机理和演化特征。研究结果表明:行政边界对城市用地规模的直接影响效应不显著;行政边界通过对经济、人口等中间要素的影响间接作用于城市用地的扩张过程;1990—2010年的5个时间节点,京津冀城市用地行政边界效应的间接影响要素中,财政支出和非农业人口的主导作用明显,社会固定资产、实际利用外资和职工平均工资也在不同阶段发挥了不可忽视的作用;在社会经济发展水平较低、市场化和区域一体化滞后的阶段,社会固定资产是行政边界影响城市用地规模的重要间接要素,而在要素流动较为频繁的时期,实际利用外资和职工平均工资成为构筑在行政边界和城市用地规模间不可忽视的中间要素。本研究可为京津冀城市用地的理性扩张和城市开发边界的划定提供理论支持和政策建议。
How the administrative boundary influences the urban land- use scale？ Quoting the study case of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei agglomeration, we build the border effect model of urban land based on the structural equation model. In the process of developing the model, we select economic factors, industry factors, population factors, the administrative elements and urban land as the latent variables, then the fitted models are constructed according to the indexes values of the year 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005 and 2010. Based on the built model, the mechanism and evolution process of urban land expansion under the border effect is revealed. The results show that： Firstly, the administrative boundary has no significant direct effect on the urban landuse scale; secondly, the administrative boundary has indirect influence on the process of urban land expansion, the indirect effects including the economic factors, population elements and other factors; thirdly, according to the measuring values at five time nodes（1990, 1995, 2000,2005, 2010）, the financial expenses and non- agricultural population play a leading role in the indirect influence of the administrative boundary on the expansion of the urban land in BeijingTianjin- Hebei agglomeration. The social fixed assets, the actual utilization of foreign investment and the average wages also play an important role in different periods. The final but not the least point is that the social fixed assets is a pivotal indirect element when the socioeconomic development is in the low-level, while the important role of the actual utilization of foreign investment and the average wages cannot be denied in the urban land-use border effect when the social and economic elements flow is frequent and efficient. Based on this study, the theoretical support and policy recommendations can be provided for rational expansion of urban land in Beijing- Tianjin- Hebei agglomeration and delineation of the urban development boundary.
出处
《自然资源学报》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2016年第7期1127-1137,共11页
Journal of Natural Resources
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(71441036)~~
关键词
行政边界
城市用地
结构方程模型
京津冀
administrative boundary
urban land
structural equation modeling
Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei
