摘要
文章引入STIRPAT模型对1978—2014年耕地面积变化及其相关因素分别进行单位根检验、协整关系检验,并建立误差修正模型。研究结果表明,短期内,人口的增加、经济的不合理发展、城镇化进程的推进是导致耕地面积减少的主要原因,产业结构的优化对于耕地的保护具有促进作用。长期内,人口的减少、产业结构的优化、城镇化进程的推进有利于耕地的保护。研究认为,保护耕地资源可以从产业结构优化、统筹规划城镇化建设、完善农地征收制度等方面入手提供相应的政策对策。
On the basis of introduction the STIRPAT model, the paper use cultivated land area and its related factors in 1978-2014 respectively doing the unit root test and co-integration relationship test and established error correction model. The result shows that： In the short term, the increase of population, the reasonable development of the economy and the advancement of urbanization are the main reasons for reducing the number of cultivated land, the optimization of industrial structure is good for protection of cultivated land. In the long term,the increase of population, industrial structure optimization, the advancement of urbanization is advantageous to the protection of cultivated land. The study concluded that the in order to protect farmland resources, some countermeasures should be suggested, including optimizing industrial structure, overall planning of urbanization construction, perfecting the farmland expropriation system so on.
出处
《改革与战略》
北大核心
2016年第8期63-68,共6页
Reformation & Strategy
基金
河南省高等学校哲学社会科学研究"三重"重大项目(专项)(项目编号:2014-SZZD-25)
