摘要
房价收入比是反映居民购房可支付能力的重要指标。为了更真实准确反映我国居民长期承受的购房负担,本文基于持久收入假说,利用我国35个大中城市数据,建立状态空间模型,估计出持久收入意义下的房价收入比,通过情景分析确定其合理上限,并分析主要特征。研究表明:1我国房价-持久收入比的合理上限为7.6,有28个城市已超过该上限,其中,北京最高,达到14.9;2城市越发达,房价-持久收入比越高,居民需要承受的购房压力越大,且在时间趋势上,一线与二三线城市间的差距呈现扩大趋势;3在地理分布上,我国东部、中部、西部、东北地区大中城市的房价-持久收入比呈现从高到低的排列顺序;4相比于根据可支配收入测算的房价收入比,房价-持久收入比与其约有10%的差异。当前我国政府应采取有效措施继续限制房价,减轻居民购房负担。
The housing price to income ratio is an important index to reflect the ability to paying for the house. For the purpose that the pressure of affording the house can be more accurately reflected in the long term, in this paper, we estimate housing price to income ratio according to the data of 35 middle and large cities in China from the year 2002 to 2013 under the permanent income hypothesis, then determine its reasonable upper limit by scenario analysis and analyze the characteristic. The study shows that： （i） the reasonable upper limit of housing price to income ratio is 7.6, however, the average of housing price to income ratio of 35 cities is 9.2, housing price to income ratio of 28 cites has been over the upper limit, and the highest ratio is 14.9 for Beijing; （ii） the housing price to income ratio are higher in more developed cities, consumers need to take on greater pressure, for the time trend, the gap between first tier and second third tier cities is widening; （iii）For the geographical distribution, housing price to income ratio in Chinese eastern, central, northeast and western large cities is from high to low in descending order; （iv） the difference is about 10% between housing price to disposable income ratio and housing price to permanent income ratio. The Government should take effective measures to continue to limit housing prices and relieve pressure of affording houses.
出处
《统计研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2016年第8期95-100,共6页
Statistical Research
基金
中国人民大学科学研究基金(中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助)项目“中国跨越中等收入陷阱研究”(16XNH103)资助
关键词
持久收入假说
房价收入比
状态空间模型
Permanent Income Hypothesis
Housing Price to Income Ratio
State Space Model
