摘要
利用1960年-2012年长三角地区34个气象站逐日气温资料,采用趋势分析、小波分析、Mann-Kendall检验、样条插值等方法,分析了长三角地区的极端气温时空变化特征。结果表明：近53年,冷指数均呈显著上升趋势,且均通过了0.01的信度检验,气候倾向率分别达-2.8d/（10a）、-4.1d/（10a）和0.45℃/（10a）,暖指数虽也有上升趋势但趋势较为不显著,仅有暖昼指数与极端最高气温通过了0.05的信度检验。空间分布上,高温日数和极端最高气温呈北低南高、东低西高、沿海低内陆高的分布规律,低温日数和极端最低气温与之相反。变化趋势上,极端气温指数基本均表现为上升趋势,其中极端低温和极端高温上升趋势最明显的地区为上海、南京、杭州等大城市及其周边区域。
Base on the daily temperature data of 34 meteorological stations in the Yangtze River Delta region during 1960-2012,by using trend analysis,wavelet analysis,Mann-Kendall test,and spline interpolation method,the temporal and spatial variation characteristics of extreme temperature in Yangtze River Delta were analyzed.The results showed that：in recent 53 years,cold index showed a significantly upward trend,and passed the 0.01 reliability test,with the climate tendency rate of-2.8d/（10a）,-4.1d/（10a）and 0.45℃/（10a）,respectively.The warm index had a rising trend but the trend was not significant,only warm day index and the extreme maximum temperature passed the 0.05 reliability test.From a spatial distribution perspective,the number of high temperature days and the extreme maximum temperature showed the distribution rules of north low and south high,east low and west high,and coastal low and inland high.Low temperature days and extreme minimum temperature were contrary.From a change trend perspective,extreme temperature index showed a rising trend,and the most obvious upward trend areas of the extreme low and extreme high temperature were Shanghai,Nanjing,Hangzhou and other large cities and surrounding areas.
出处
《河南水利与南水北调》
CAS
2016年第4期42-47,共6页
Henan Water Resources & South-to-North Water Diversion
基金
江苏省杰出自然科学基金（BK20140047）
重大专项气象遥感应用示范系统（一期）（201401KY002/02-2）
关键词
长三角地区
极端气温
时空变化
张力样条插值法
规则样条插值法
Yangtze River Delta region
extreme temperature
spatial and temporal variations
spline with tension
regularized spline
