摘要
为提高信号交叉口的交通安全管理水平,研究驾驶员换道行为影响因素,确定各因素影响下的换道风险率,选取可能影响变道行为的潜在变量,构建交叉口换道行为的Cox风险分析模型,并以武汉市3个交叉口调查数据为例进行实例分析。结果表明:10个因素对进口道车辆换道有显著影响,其中,车辆与目标车道前方车辆的车头间距、与目标车道后方车辆的车头间距、所在车道与目标车道车辆密度差和可供变道选择的目标车道数是危险因素;车辆与所在车道前方车辆的车头间距、车辆距停车线距离、行驶速度和所在车道相位的绿信比是保护因素。车辆处于信号灯倒计时的变道风险率高于其他时段;出租车的变道风险率高于其他车辆。
In order to enhance traffic safety management of signalized intersections, factors influencing drivers＇ lane-changing hazard rate were analyzed. Potential covariates were selected to build a Cox＇s proportional hazard regression model. A case study was carried out by using intersection survey data of Wuhan. The results show that 10 factors have significant influence on lane-changing behavior, that space headway between vehicle and its leader on target lane, space headway between vehicle and its follower on target lane, vehicle density difference and target lane number are risk factors, that space headway between vehicle and its leader, distance between vehicle and stop line, speed andlane green ratio are protective factors, that drivers＇ lane-changing hazard rateunder countdown signal is higher than that in other periods, and that taxies have a higher lane-changing hazard rate than that of other vehicles.
出处
《中国安全科学学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2016年第8期19-23,共5页
China Safety Science Journal
基金
吉林省交通运输科技计划项目(2014-1-8)
教育部留学回国人员科研启动项目([2013]1792)
武汉理工大学研究生自主创新研究基金资助(2015-zy-024)
关键词
信号交叉口
换道行为
进口道
COX风险模型
风险率
signalized intersection
lane-changing behavior
approach
Cox＇s proportional hazard regression model
hazard rate
