摘要
针对宁波市象山县的安全事故问题，提出基于灰色理论的预测模型研究。以象山县2008—2015年的安全事故数据为基础，分别对事故发生次数和死亡人数建立了灰色模型，经检测发现预测模型可以相对精确地模拟事故发生次数和死亡人数。借助预测模型对未来两年象山县的安全事故情况进行预测，为相关部门科学决策提供参考。
In this paper, a evaluation model was proposed for the safety accident in Xiangshan, Ningbo, based on grey theory. The number of accidents and deaths of Xiangshan from 2008 to 2015 were used to establish grey model, respectively. The grey model showed good accurate in the number of accidents and deaths. The safety situation of Xiangshan in next two years was evaluated, which could provide reference for the relevant government agency to make decisions.
出处
《宁波工程学院学报》
2016年第3期34-38,共5页
Journal of Ningbo University of Technology
基金
王伟明助创基金项目(2016014)
关键词
安全事故
灰色理论
预测模型
safety accident, grey theory, forecasting model
