摘要
使用中国1995—2015的年度数据,运用向量自回归模型、脉冲响应和方差分解等计量工具对中国旅游经济与影响因素之间的关系进行了分析。结论是序列间存在长期均衡关系;国内旅游收入本身存在较强的自我激励作用,因此能保持旅游经济的持续高速发展;旅行社数、旅客周转量和城镇人均可支配收入的增长不管从短期还是长期看都能促进旅游收入的提高;旅客周转量的大小和旅行社数量的多少对旅游收入的贡献率不容忽视等。
With the rapid development of China＇s tourism economy in recent years, it is necessary to find out the relationship between the development and its affecting factors. According to the statistical data of Chinese tourism from 1995 to 2015, the paper describes the relationship between China＇s tourism economy and the influencing factors through VAR model, IRF model and variance decomposition. It is concluded in four aspects. First, the establishment of the co-integration relationship suggests that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between sequences. Second, domestic tourism income has strong self-motivation, so that it is possible to maintain the sustained and rapid development of tourism economy. Third, the number of travel agency, the volume of passenger transportation and urban per capita disposable income growth can promote the improvement of tourism revenue in both short and long terms. Finally, it is also important that how much contribution of the tourism income come is made by the size of the volume of passenger transportation and the number of travel agencies.
出处
《重庆三峡学院学报》
2016年第6期74-80,共7页
Journal of Chongqing Three Gorges University
基金
内蒙古财政厅重点决策咨询项目"促进创业创新的财政政策研究"(201507)
内蒙古自治区高校科研项目"一带一路背景下内蒙古与俄蒙创新合作的实施路径研究"(NJZC16172)阶段性成果
关键词
VAR
脉冲响应
方差分解
旅游
影响因素
VAR model
impulse response
variance decomposition
tourism
influential factors
