摘要
针对水利水电EPC项目的投标特点,按照风险性质对风险因素进行分类,综合考虑社会与政治风险、自然风险、经济与财务风险、技术风险、管理风险以及竞争风险建立风险评价指标体系。引入三角模糊数对传统模糊层次分析法进行改进,充分考虑专家判断的模糊性以提高评价结果的准确性,据此建立水利水电EPC项目投标风险模糊综合评价模型。将建立的模型应用于云南省某水利水电EPC项目的投标风险决策,为该项目投标风险应对提供了科学的依据。研究表明,该模型具有较好的实用性和科学性。
For the bidding characteristics of water conservancy and hydropower EPC project, the risk factors are classified ac- cording to their natures, and then a risk evaluation index system is established under the comprehensive consideration of the so- cial and political risk, natural risk, economic and financial risk, technical risk, management risk and competition risk. Trian- gular fuzzy number is introduced in the improvement made on the conventional fuzzy AHP, for which the fuzzinesses judged by experts are fully considered, so as to enhance the accuracy of the evaluation result. On the basis of this, a comprehensive evalu- ation model for bidding risk of water conservancy and hydropower EPC project is established. The model is applied to the deci- sion-making on the bidding risk from a water conservancy and hydropower EPC project in Yunnan Province, thus a scientific ba- sis is provided to the bidding risk response for the project. The study shows that the model has better practicability and scientific nature.
出处
《水利水电技术》
CSCD
北大核心
2016年第11期55-60,共6页
Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering
关键词
水利水电EPC项目
投标风险
评价指标
三角模糊数
层次分析法
模糊综合评价
EPC project of water conservancy and hydropower
bidding risk
evaluation index
triangular fuzzy number
analyti-cal hierarchy process
fuzzy comprehensive evaluation
