摘要
为有效降低风电预测误差随机性对电力系统调度的影响,优化含风电电力系统运行的安全性与经济性,提出了基于机会约束目标规划的滚动调度模型。首先,研究了误差分布与预测超前时间的关系,并指出预测远端可信度下降对电力系统调度的影响。然后,基于机会约束目标规划建立了可直接利用多时间尺度预测信息的滚动调度模型。其中,调度计划的制定能够有效利用全局预测信息,有侧重地兼顾运行安全性与经济性;调度计划的更新能够通过分时逐次调节降低系统调节难度,同时调整计划更具预见性。最后,利用算例对所提滚动调度模型的有效性进行验证分析。结果表明:模型能够结合误差分布变化,利用多时间尺度风电预测信息优化含大规模风电系统运行。
In order to reduce effects of stochastic wind forecasting error on power system operation, a rolling dispatch model based on chance constrained goal programming（CCGP） is proposed taking forecasting error changes into consideration. Firstly, by studying relationship between forecasting error and leading time, it is proposed that partial accuracy decrease of wind forecast may affect system dispatch. Then, CCGP based rolling dispatch model is introduced to directly utilize forecasting information under multi-time horizon. Dispatch plan can effectively use global information and consider balance between risk and cost. With rolling mechanism, updated dispatch reduces difficulties in plan adjustment and makes adjustment more foreseeing. Finally, case studies are carried out to analyze effectiveness of rolling model. Results indicate that, the model efficiently utilizes wind power information under different time horizons and improves operations of wind power integrated system.
出处
《电网技术》
EI
CSCD
北大核心
2017年第1期187-193,共7页
Power System Technology
关键词
误差分布
多时间尺度
滚动调度
机会约束目标规划
forecasting error distribution
multi-time horizon
rolling dispatch
chance constrained goal programming
