摘要
An analysis of historical data of Fitzroy River, which lies in the east coast of Australia, reveals that there is an increasing trend in extreme floods and droughts apparently attributable to increased variability of blue and green waters which could be due to climate change. In order to get a better understanding of the impacts of climate change on the water resources of the study area for near future as well as distant future, SWAT （soil and water assessment tool） model was applied. The model is first tested for its suitability in capturing the basin characteristics with available data, and then, forecasts from six GCMs （general circulation model） with about half-a-century lead time to 2046-2064 and about one-century lead time to 2080-2100 are incorporated to evaluate the impacts of climate change under three marker emission scenarios： A2, A1B and B 1. The results showed worsening water resources regime into the future.
