摘要
本文从影响保险密度的主要因素(人均GDP、人口自然增长率)入手,建立VAR模型,并导入1985至2014年全国保费收入、年底总人口数、保险密度人口自然增长率等数据,使用脉冲响应函数和方差分解方法对全国保险密度与各影响因素之间的关系进行实证研究。结果表明:人均GDP对我国保险密度具有正向影响。相反,人口自然增长率对我国保险密度具有负向影响。但人均GDP的变化对保险密度的贡献率较小,而人口自然增长率对保险密度的影响较为明显。
In this paper, the VAR model is established from the main factors which influence the density of in-surance （GDP per capita, natural population growth rate）, and the data of the national premium income, the pop-ulation at the end of the year and the natural growth rate of population density are introduced. Using impulse response function and variance decomposition method, this paper conducts an empirical study on the relation-ship between the national insurance density and various influencing factors. The results show that per capita GDP has a positive impact on China’ s insurance density. In contrast, the natural population growth rate has a negative impact on China’ s insurance density. But the contribution of GDP per capita to the insurance density is small, while the natural population growth rate has a more obvious influence on the insurance density.
出处
《财政科学》
2017年第2期125-131,共7页
Fiscal Science
关键词
保险密度
VAR模型
脉冲响应函数
方差分解
Insurance Density
VAR Model
Impulse Response Function
Variance Decomposition
