摘要
针对单独应用故障树分析法(FTA)或者层次分析法(AHP)进行安全风险评估存在评估结果片面的问题,将FTA方法与AHP方法相结合,研究设计基于FTA-AHP的铁路安全风险综合评估方法。用FTA方法确定目标风险事件的原因事件,构建FTA模型;对FTA模型中的基本原因事件分类归纳,建立AHP模型;对AHP模型准则层和指标层因素的重要性进行两两比较,构建各层的判断矩阵;将通过一致性检验的各层判断矩阵中的特征向量作为该层对应因素的权重向量,并结合因素的安全状态评分,得到上一层对应因素的安全状态评分;通过逐层计算各因素的安全状态评分,最终实现对分析目标安全风险的综合评估。以高速列车制动系统的安全风险综合评估为例,验证了方法的可行性和有效性。该方法既可以分析导致铁路系统故障的原因及其影响程度,又可以对整体系统的安全状态进行综合评估,更全面反映系统的安全风险状态。
Evaluation results are one-sided with either Fault Tree Analysis （FTA） or Analytic Hierarchy Process （AHP） alone for safety assessment. Accordingly, the synthesized FTA and AHP assessment method is put forward for railway risk assessment. The cause events of target risk event are determined by FTA method to construct FTA model. The basic cause events in FTA model are classified and concluded to set up AHP model. The two factors in the criterion or index layers of AHP model are compared respec- tively in terms of importance to build judgment matrix for each layer. If consistency check is OK, the eigenvector in each layer of judgment matrix would be used as the weight vector for the corresponding fac- tor in the same layer. Combined with the safety status score of the factor, the safety status score of the corresponding factor in the upper layer would be obtained. The calculation as above would be done layer by layer, and finally the synthesized safety assessment result for the target would be got. The feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method is verified by the comprehensive safety risk evaluation for the braking system of high speed train. Results show that the proposed method not only can analyze both the fault rea- sons for railway system and their influence, but also evaluate comprehensively the safety state for the whole system, and reflect fully the risk status of the system.
出处
《中国铁道科学》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2017年第2期138-144,共7页
China Railway Science
基金
中国铁路总公司科技研究开发计划项目(2016F024
2015F030
2014YJ090)
关键词
铁路系统
故障树分析
层次分析
安全风险
综合评估
Railway system
Fault tree analysis
Analytic hierarchy process
Safety risk
Synthesized assessment
