摘要
及时准确的洪水预报系统可为防洪减灾提供重要的依据,针对目前洪水预报系统主要侧重于单模型研究、模型参数固定不变、长历时预报误差累积等问题,建立了具有多模型选择及参数优化功能的洪水实时预报系统,通过实时改进模型参数来改善预报效果。应用于黑河干流两场次洪水预报的结果表明,各预报模型在每场次洪水中的预报精度不同,且在参数优化后精度都相应地提高。由精度可知,TOPMODEL模型更适合该流域洪水预报,其精度由0.920 9、0.910 3提高到0.987 9、0.958 9。实验证明该系统在干旱半干旱区洪水预报中具有应用前景。
Timely and accurate flood forecasting system can provide important basis for flood control and disaster mitigation. Ai- ming at problems, i.e. the flood forecast system mainly focuses on the research of single model, the model parameters are fixed, the accumulation of long-term forecasting error, etc. at present, a real-time flood forecast system with the functions of multi- model selection, parameter optimization and improvement of forecasting effect through real-time improvement of the model param- eter is established herein. The result from the application of this model to the forecasts of two flood events occurred at the main stream of Heihe River shows that the accuracies of the forecasts of both the flood events are different from each forecasting model, which are accordingly enhanced after the optimization of the parameters concerned. It is known from the accuracy that the TOP- MODEL is more suitable for this river basin, of which the accuracy is increased from 0.920 9, 0. 910 3 to 0.987 9, 0. 958 9. The relevant experiment shows that the system has the application prospect for the flood forecast of the arid and semi-arid region.
出处
《水利水电技术》
CSCD
北大核心
2017年第4期13-17,24,共6页
Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering
基金
国家自然科学基金(41471059)
关键词
黑河
洪水实时预报系统
模型库
参数优化
分布式水文模型
降雨径流预报
水文预报精度
决策支持系统
Heihe River
real-time flood forecast system
model base
parameter optimization
distributed hydrological made1
rainfall-runoff forecasting
hydrological forecasting accuracy
decision support system
