摘要
中国承诺将于2030年左右使单位国内生产总值二氧化碳排放比2005年下降60%—65%,排放总量达到峰值并争取尽早实现。我国目前的碳排放主要来自工业、交通运输业和建筑业,其中建筑业碳排放约40%,所占比重最大,而高达550亿m2的存量住宅能耗和排放是建筑业碳排放的主力。住宅建筑节能是关系到我国建筑业节能减排目标能否顺利实现的重要因素,是我国节能减排工作的重要领域。构建一个可用于衡量住宅建筑节能对资源环境及经济发展影响的可计算模型是推动住宅建筑节能工作的重要基础。本文尝试以CGE标准模型为基础,依次对住宅建筑生产模块、污染排放模块、节能住宅建筑模块、动态模块和环境福利模块进行详细构建说明。在四方面对标准模型进行扩展:第一,将生产要素扩展为资本、劳动和能源要素束,能源要素束被深化分解为清洁能源与非清洁能源束,然后再予深化细化;第二,依据差异的贸易伙伴将进出口细化为差异的国家和地区;第三,将建筑污染排放作为一个特殊部门,建立建筑污染排放模块,纳入到CGE模型中,并将污染要素纳入到效应函数中;第四,依据资本增长模型,建立动态模块。通过将住宅建筑节能作为变量扩展到标准CGE模型的方法,构建了住宅建筑节能CGE扩展模型。借助该扩展模型,可以研究非节能建筑约束、外部节能建筑与经济增长之间的内在关系,进而破解非节能建筑约束、外部节能建筑与住宅建筑节能快速发展之间难以协调的矛盾。在本文研究成果的基础上,可进一步建立相应的社会核算矩阵(SAM),并对各种函数的参数估计和敏感性检验进行实证分析。
China promised to reduce carbon dioxide emissions to 60% - 65% per unit of gross domestic product （GDP） in 2005, and get the top point of emissions as soon as possible. China＇ s carbon dioxide emissions mainly came from the industrial, transportation and construction industry, and the construction industry＇ s emission is about 40% ,the largest proportion of all emissions. Residential building energy conservation is an important factor of smoothly achieving Chinese construction industry energy-saving emission reduction targets, and energy saving of residential buildings is an important area of energy conservation and emission reduction in China. Building a computable model to measure the impact of energy efficiency on the resource environment and economic development of residential buildings is an important basis for promoting energy conservation in residential buildings. Based on the standard CGE model, the authors give a detailed description of residential building production model, pollution discharge model, energy-saving residential building model, dynamic model and environmental welfare model. We try to extend the CGE standard model from four aspects：first, extending production factor into capital, labor and energy elements based on the standard CGE model, and decomposing energy factor bundle into clean energy and non-clean energy beam; second, elaborating the import and export partners into the import and export of different countries and regions. Third, through transferring building pollution emissions as a special department, merging the establishment of building pollution emission module into the CGE model, and incorporating the pollution elements into the effective function. Fourth, establishing the dynamic modules according to the capital growth model. CGE model of residential building energy saving is constructed by extending the energy saving of residential buildings as a variable to the standard CGE model. With this extension model, it can be used to study the inherent relationships between non-energy saving building constraints, external energy saving buildings and economic growth, and then can break the contradiction between non-energy saving building constraints, the rapid development of energy saving buildings and residential buildings. Base on the research results, the corresponding social accounting matrix （SAM） will be established, and empirically analyzed the parameters estimation and sensitivity test of various functions.
出处
《中国人口·资源与环境》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2017年第5期84-91,共8页
China Population,Resources and Environment
基金
上海市科技发展基金课题"特大型城市低碳化的系统结构研究"(批准号:10692103000)
关键词
能源
环境
住宅建筑
节能
CGE模型
energy
environment
residential buildings
energy-saving
CGE model
