摘要
为定量分析近30 a地膜覆盖对棉花的增产效应,整合已发表的相关田间试验数据,利用Meta分析方法系统分析地膜覆盖对棉花的产量效应及影响因素。具体过程包括:异质性检验、综合效应量计算、发表偏倚检验、敏感性分析、累积Meta分析和亚组分析。结果表明,所收集的数据不存在发表偏倚和极端值,分析结果可信度较高。与不覆盖相比,覆盖地膜的棉花产量平均提高17.2%。自1986年以来,覆盖地膜的棉花累积平均增产率为1.2%~18.0%。在平作、年均气温小于12℃或年降水量小于500 mm的地区及采用厚度0.008 mm地膜覆盖时,地膜覆盖条件下棉花的增产率较高,分别为17.8%、21.5%、19.1%和17.3%;3个区域的覆膜增产率由大到小表现为:西北棉区(24.5%)、黄河流域棉区(16.5%)、长江流域棉区(10.5%);近年来,覆盖地膜仍可在一定程度上提高棉花产量,但其增产率已呈下降趋势,应采取必要的应对措施。
Plastic film mulching,known as the ＂white revolution ＂,has been widely used in cotton cultivation in China,since it makes the cotton planting area expanded from the south toward the north and from the east toward the west. However,it is unclear about if and how the yield increasing effect of plastic film mulching is influenced by different planting patterns,climatic factors,film thicknesses,regions and experimental durations in China. To solve these questions,a total of 29 papers containing48 groups of data were selected on the subject of cotton yield and plastic film mulching from the published papers before 15 th November, 2016 and analyzed by meta-analysis. The main steps included heterogeneity test,comprehensive effect size calculation,publication bias test,sensitivity analysis,cumulative meta-analysis and influence factor analysis. Results showed that there were no publication bias and no extreme value among the collected data,thus the analysis results were highly credible. Plastic film mulching averagely increased cotton yield by 17. 2% compared with no mulching. The cumulatively average yield of cotton mulched with plastic film was increased by 1. 2% - 18. 0% since 1986. Under flat planting,in regions where annual mean temperature was lower than 12℃ or annual precipitation was less than 500 mm,and using 0. 008 mm plastic film,the yield increasing rate under plastic film mulching was higher,which was 17. 8%,21. 5%,19. 1% and 17. 3%,respectively. The yield increasing effect with plastic film mulching was the highest in the northwest region with a mean value of 24. 5%,followed by the Yellow River Basin with a mean value of 16. 5%,then by the Yangtze River Basin with a mean value of 10. 5%. In recent years,plastic film mulching could improve cotton yield to a certain extent,but its yield increasing rate was declined,and necessary measures needed to be taken. This research would provide valuable information for the application of plastic film mulching and further increase the yield of cotton in China.
出处
《农业机械学报》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2017年第7期228-235,共8页
Transactions of the Chinese Society for Agricultural Machinery
基金
国家社会科学基金项目(15XJY010)
陕西省国土资源厅项目(K332021305
K332021306)
关键词
棉花
产量
地膜
META分析
残膜
农田污染
cotton
yield
plastic film
Meta-analysis
residual plastic film
farmland pollution
