摘要
[目的/意义]提出一套轻量化、细粒度、定量化的颠覆性技术预见方法体系,以期为创新机构发现、部署、推动颠覆性技术发展提供方法论支撑。[方法/过程]在基于领域知识突变识别内部潜在颠覆性技术主题,基于学科知识交叉识别外部潜在颠覆性技术主题的基础上,借助Fisher-Pry改进模型分析了颠覆性技术成熟度并以技术路线图展示了技术预见结果。[结果/结论]通过纤维素生物降解预处理领域实证,证明所提方法是一种行之有效的领域颠覆性技术预见方法。
[ Purpose/Sigulficance ] The aim of this research is to present a fine-grained and quantitative forecasting method of disruptive technology so as to provide methodological support for the discovery, deployment and promotion of disruptive technology. [ Method/ Process] After identifying internal potential disruptive technical topics based on the domain knowledge mutations, identifying external po- tential disruptive technical topics based on interdisciplinary knowledge intersection, this paper analyzed the maturity of disruptive technical topic based on the Fisher-Pry model. The result of technical forecasting was presented by means of technical roadmap at last. [ Result/ Conclusion]Through the empirical research of cellulose biodegradation pretreatment, it is proved that the method proposed is effective for forecasting the disruptive technology.
出处
《情报杂志》
CSSCI
北大核心
2017年第9期38-44,共7页
Journal of Intelligence
基金
国家社会科学基金青年项目"基于文献知识关联的颠覆性技术预见方法研究"(编号:17CTQ023)研究成果之一
关键词
知识关联
颠覆性技术
预见方法
knowledge correlation disruptive technology forecasting method
