摘要
为研究全球气候变暖背景下,四川气温和降水量的区域变化特征,将四川省11个地面气象基准站分为川西高原、四川盆地和攀西地区对30年气温和降水量资料进行分析,采用一元线性回归模型进行趋势分析并进行F显著性检验和R2拟合优度检验,采用滑动t检验和Mann-Kendall检验进行突变分析,得出各地区年季变化变暖显著,降水量方面川西高原呈上升趋势,四川盆地呈下降趋势,攀西地区无明显特征,季变化较大,夏季最多。各地区气温和降水量月变化明显,降水量主要集中在6、7、8月;气温和降水量区域差异明显,均自东向西递减;突变点方面川西高原、四川盆地和攀西地区气温分别在2002、1996、2004年,降水量分别在1987、1989、2005年。
In order to study the regional variation characteristics of air temperature and precipitation in Sichuan Province under the background of global warming, air temperature and precipitation datum of 11 base weather stations of Sichuan Province over 30 years are analyzed in this paper. The stations are divided into three regions： the Western Sichuan Plateau, the Siehuan Basin and the Panxi Region. A linear regression model and F significance ten and R2 fit goodness test are used for trend analysis, sliding t test and Mann-Kendall test are applied for abrupt changes analysis. The results show that the inter-annual and seasonal variation of temperature in all regions have significant warming trend. In terms of precipitation, in the Western Sichuan Plateau, it＇ s expressed as a upward trend in the basin, it ＇ s expressed as a down-ward trend. In the Panxi region, there is no obvious trend. The precipitation is most in summer with large seasonal changes. The differences of temperature and precipitation along with the change of month are quite obvious and the precipitation is mainly coneentrated in June, July rand August; Regional differences are obvious as well.They both decrease gradually from east to west. Both temperature and precipitation have abrupt points.In the western Sichuan,basin area and Panxi area, the abrupt points of temperature are in 2002, 1996 and 2004, respectively in 1987, 1989 and 2005.
出处
《成都信息工程大学学报》
2017年第2期200-207,共8页
Journal of Chengdu University of Information Technology
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(41305030)
公益性(气象)行业专项资助项目(GYHY201106047)
关键词
大气探测
气象信息处理
气温
降水量
变化特征
突变
四川
atmospheric sounding
meteorological information processing
air temperature
precipitation
variation characteristic
mutations
Sichuan
