摘要
基于区域全面经济伙伴关系协定和跨太平洋伙伴关系协定对中国带来的贸易政策不确定性及其对制造业出口影响的研究,本文不仅为中国的区域经济一体化战略提供一定的参考,还对制造业企业的出口目的地和行业选择提供了依据。利用2005年和2010年的关税和贸易数据,本文比较分析了中国与上述两组区域贸易协定成员国之间的贸易政策不确定性对中国制造业出口的影响及其作用机制,并从微观产品层面模拟分析了加入这两组区域贸易协定给中国制造业出口带来的影响。本文发现,中国与两组区域贸易协定成员国之间的贸易协议降低了中国面临的贸易政策不确定性,促进了中国制造业的出口;区域全面经济伙伴关系协定成员国之间的贸易协议给中国带来的相对贸易政策不确定性促进了中国制造业的出口。贸易政策不确定性对中国制造业出口的影响主要是通过集约边际来实现。进一步的反事实模拟表明,如果中国加入这两组区域贸易协定,中国制造业出口增长率将增加3.86%和16.28%。尤其是在美国退出跨太平洋伙伴关系协定后,中国制造业出口增长率将增加16.47%,即中国与其他成员国之间的贸易协议对中国制造业出口的促进作用更强。这说明当前中国应抓住美国退出跨太平洋伙伴关系协定的契机,开启加入该区域协定的谈判路程。进一步地,分国家的反事实模拟表明,如果中国与日本和墨西哥签订贸易协定,中国制造业出口增长率将分别上升15.15%和43.10%,所以中国应积极地与这两个国家签订贸易协定。
Based on the research of the trade policy uncertainty faced by China from RCEP and TPP and its impact on the export of manufacturing industry, this paper not only provides some reference for China＇s regional integration strategy, but also provides basis for the export destination and industry choice of manufacturing enterprises. Based on the tariff and trade data in 2005 and 2010, this paper compares the trade policy uncertainty between China and members of the two regional trade agreements, and analyses its impact on China＇s manufacturing exports and its mechanism. Besides, this paper simulates the impact of joining TPP or RCEP on China＇s manufacturing exports from the level of micro-products. It finds that the trade agreements between China and the members of RCEP and TPP reduced the trade policy uncertainty faced by China and promoted the export of China＇s manufacturing industry; the RTAs between RCEP members promoted China＇s manufacturing exports. Interestingly, both were realized mainly through the intensive margin. Further counterfactual simulation shows that if China joins RCEP and TPP, China＇s manufacturing export growth would increase by 3.86% and 16.28% respectively. Especially, after America withdraws from TPP, China＇s manufacturing export growth rate would increase by 16.47%, which means that China should seize the opportunity to start the negotiations to join TPP. In addition, the counterfactual simulation by countries shows that if China signs trade agreement with Mexico or Japan, the growth rate of China＇s manufacturing export with the two countries would increase by 43.10% and 15.15% respectively, so China should actively sign trade agreements with the two countries.
作者
钱学锋
龚联梅
QIAN Xue-feng GONG Lian-mei(School of Business Administration, Zhongnan University of Economics and Law, Wuhan 430073, Chin)
出处
《中国工业经济》
CSSCI
北大核心
2017年第10期81-98,共18页
China Industrial Economics
基金
中南财经政法大学中长期项目"经济新常态与中国国际竞争力新优势研究"(批准号31501710801)
中南财经政法大学研究生教育创新计划"TPP
贸易政策不确定性与中国制造业出口"(批准号2016Y1042)
关键词
区域经济一体化
贸易政策不确定性
二元边际
反事实模拟
regional economic integration
trade policy uncertainty
dual margin
counterfactual simulation
