摘要
盾构刀盘是盾构机的关键核心部件,研究盾构机刀盘失效风险具有重要的工程应用价值。本文运用贝叶斯网络在复杂系统故障诊断中的事件多态性、故障逻辑关系不确定性以及信息不确定性表达及推理方面的优势,基于工程实践经验与研究,对土压平衡盾构刀盘失效形式及风险机理进行分析,通过专家调查划分风险因素概率等级,进而构建了基于多态贝叶斯网络的土压盾构刀盘失效故障诊断模型,以某地铁3标区间盾构隧道施工刀盘失效风险为实例研究,分析了该工程盾构刀盘失效风险事故的概率等级,通过最大可能性路径判断了关键致险因素,并提出了相应的盾构刀盘失效风险因素控制措施,工程实践情况验证了研究结论的正确性。
As shield disk cutter is a key component of shield machine, studying the risk management of subway construction and shield cutter head failure has great engineering application value. Bayesian network has advantages in event polymorphism, fault logic relation uncertainty and information uncertainty representation and reasoning in complex system fault diagnosis. Based on the experience and research of engineering practice, this paper uses Bayesian network to analyze the failure form and risk mechanism of soil pressure balance shield. Through the expert survey, the probability level of the risk factors of the earth pressure shield based on the polymorphic Bayesian network is constructed. Taking the failure risk of the cutterhead in the construction of the shield tunnel in a metro, the probability level of the failure risk of the cutterhead is analyzed. The key risk factors are judged by the maximum probability path, and the corresponding control measures of the risk factors of the cutterhead failure are put forward. The engineering practice proves the correctness of the research conclusion.
作者
陈发达
吴贤国
王彦玉
张立茂
CHEN Fa-da;WU Xian-guo;WANG Yan-yu;ZHANG Li-mao(Guiyang Urban Rail Transit Co Ltd, Guiyang 550091, China;School of Civil Engineering and Mechanics, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430074, China)
出处
《土木工程与管理学报》
北大核心
2017年第6期57-62,72,共7页
Journal of Civil Engineering and Management
基金
国家自然科学基金(51378235
71571078
51778262
51308240)
国家重点研发项目(2016YFC0800208)
湖北省自然科学基金重点项目(zrz2014000104)
教育部博士后基金(2015M570645)
武汉市建委科技项目(201414
201619
201334)
关键词
贝叶斯网络
盾构刀盘
风险事故
故障诊断
bayesian network
shield disk cutter
risk accident
fault diagnosis
