摘要
利用我国沪深A股公司数据,研究上市公司总体会计盈余和总体账面市值比对GDP增长是否具有预测功能。研究发现,我国上市公司总体季度会计盈余增长率与未来1-4季度GDP增长有显著相关性;而上市公司总体账面市值比与未来GDP增长率的相关性较弱,预测功能只在未来1期和2期显著。进一步研究发现,将两者纳入同一模型对未来GDP增长的解释能力显著提高,但与会计盈余相比,账面市值比具有的信息含量较弱。
Based on the Chinese A share listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock market,this paper studies the effect of aggregate accounting earning and aggregate book-to-market ratio on GDP growth. We document a significantly positive correlation between aggregate accounting earnings growth and the future GDP growth in the next four quarters. Comparably,the correlation between aggregate book-to-market ratio and the future GDP growth is weak; the significant correlation only exists in the next two quarters.We also find that the combination of the two variables can enhance the ability to predict the GDP growth,but the predicted ability of aggregate book-to-market ratio is still weaker than aggregate accounting earnings growth.
出处
《会计与经济研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2017年第5期52-62,共11页
Accounting and Economics Research
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(71272189)
关键词
会计盈余
账面市值比
市场估值
经济增长
accounting earning
book-to-market ratio
market valuation
economic growth
