摘要
由于地质条件的复杂和试验材料的欠缺,影响因子存在随机性、模糊性、灰性、未知性等不确定性,导致突水危险性评价结果不准确。针对此问题,引入新方法,基于云的定性不确定性度量模型和D-S理论的冲突证据合成规则,利用云模型兼顾评价中模糊性和随机性,实现评价指标由定性到定量的不确定性转化;利用D-S理论的冲突证据合成方法,消除融合数据之间的冲突性确定评价指标更合理的权重;综合考虑水源因素、排水因素、人员因素以及管理因素,构建煤矿突水危险性综合评价体系,对南山煤矿突水危险性综合评价。评价结果为"较安全"等级,符合工程实际。工程实例表明:基于云模型和D-S理论的煤矿突水危险性综合评价准确、可靠,精度较高,具有较高的应用价值。
Due to the complexity of geological conditions and the lack of experimental materials,the influence factors are random,fuzzy,grey,unknown,and so on.To solve these problems,new method is introduced based on qualitative uncertainty measurement cloud model and the synthesis rules of conflict evidence of D-S theory,and using cloud model combined fuzziness and randomness of water inrush evaluation,the evaluation index realizes uncertainty transform from qualitative to quantitative;using conflicting evidence synthetic method of D-S theory,the conflict between the fused data is eliminated to determine the more reasonable weights of evaluation indexes;comprehensively considering the factors of water,drainage factors,human factors and management factors,the system of water inrush risk comprehensive evaluation of coal mine is constructed to evaluate Nanshan Coal Mine water inrush risk.The evaluation result is a ＂safer＂ grade,which conforms to the engineering practice.The engineering example shows that the comprehensive evaluation of coal mine water inrush risk based on cloud model and D-S theory is accurate,reliable and accurate,and has high application value.
出处
《煤矿安全》
CAS
北大核心
2018年第1期210-213,217,共5页
Safety in Coal Mines
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(51379119)
国家自然科学基金青年科学基金资助项目(51604164
51304126)
关键词
煤矿突水
综合评价
云模型
D-S理论
评价模型
coal mine water inrush
comprehensive evaluation
cloud model
D-S theory
evaluation model
