摘要
为提高"站城融合"背景下新型铁路综合交通枢纽交通需求预测精度,在阐述"站城融合"新型铁路综合交通枢纽概述基础上,提出"站城融合"新型铁路综合交通枢纽交通需求预测方法,既交通功能交通需求预测、城市功能交通需求预测、背景交通需求预测。最后以沙坪坝"站城融合"新型铁路综合交通枢纽为例,分别对铁路综合交通枢纽的交通功能、城市功能和背景交通需求进行预测,利用Trans CAD进行客流分配,而后进行客流的叠加分析,得到高峰时段客流情况及预测的主要指标。预测结果表明,改进四阶段法增加了预测精度,更加贴合实际。
The objective of this paper is to improve the accuracy of traffic demand prediction of new railway integrated transportation hub under the background of ＂integration of stations and cities＂. On the basis of expounding the summary of the new railway integrated transport hub of ＂integration of stations and cities＂, we propose a new method for forecasting the traffic demand of the new railway integrated transport hub, that is, traffic function demand forecast, urban functional traffic demand forecast, and background traffic demand forecast. Through using this forecast method, the paper, taking the new railway integrated transportation hub in Shapingba as an example, predicts the traffic function, urban function and background traffic demand of the railway comprehensive transport hub respectively. In this paper, the passenger flow assignment is carried out by Trans CAD, and then the passenger flow is superimposed to get the main index of passenger flow at peak hours. The prediction results show that the improved four stage method increases the prediction accuracy and it is more practical.
作者
陶思宇
冯涛
TAO Si-yu;FENG Tao(School of Transportation and Logistics, Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu 610031, Sichuan, China)
出处
《铁道运输与经济》
北大核心
2018年第7期80-85,共6页
Railway Transport and Economy
基金
重庆市应用开发计划重点项目(2015H01373)
关键词
站城融合
城市功能
铁路综合交通枢纽
交通需求预测
四阶段法
Station City Integration
Urban Function
Railway Integrated Transportation Hub
Traffic Demand Forecast
Four Stage Method
