摘要
中国政府已于2017年12月19日正式启动统一的全国碳排放交易系统,电力行业成为首个被纳入碳交易市场的重点减排行业。在碳交易机制下,风电项目将会通过碳交易获得额外的收益。文章基于多阶段实物期权和动态递归理论,建立了考虑碳交易收益的风电项目价值评估模型,利用神经网络模型预测近五年的无风险收益率。通过实际算例进行仿真分析表明,相较于传统的净现值方法,实物期权可以更加灵活地反映出风电项目的内在价值与风险,风电项目通过碳交易获得的收益占风电项目总价值的10.46%。由此可见,全国统一的碳交易市场成立后,将对风电项目的价值产生重大的影响。
The Chinese government formally launched the unified national carbon emissions trading system in December 19, 2017. The power industry has become the first key emission reduction industry to be incorporated into the carbon trading market. Under the carbon trading mechanism, the wind power project will gain additional revenue through carbon trading. Based on multistage real option and dynamic recursive theory, a value evaluation model of wind power project considering carbon transaction revenue is established, and the risk free yield of the last five years is predicted by using neural network model. The results, through practical examples of simulation, show that compared with the traditional NPV method, the real options can be more flexible to reflect the intrinsic value and the risk of wind power projects. The wind power projects through carbon trading income accounted for the total value of wind power project 10.46%. Thus, a unified national carbon trading market will have a major impact on the value of wind power project.
作者
赵文会
李阮
ZHAO Wenhui;LI Ruan(School of Economics and Management,Shanghai University of Electric Power,Shanghai 200090,China;Shanghai Waigaoqiao No.3 Power Generation Co.Ltd.,Shanghai 200137,China)
出处
《生态经济》
北大核心
2018年第8期19-24,共6页
Ecological Economy
基金
国家自然科学基金项目“基于节能减排的发电权与排污权组合交易模型”(71403163)
中国博士后科学基金项目“跨省区发电权与排污权组合交易模式选择及其利益分配”(2013M540910)
上海市哲学社会科学规划基金项目“基于节能减排的发电权与排污权组合交易优化模型及其利益分配问题”(2014BJB017)
关键词
碳交易
电力行业
风电项目
实物期权
神经网络
carbon emissions
power industry
wind power projects
real options
neural network
