摘要
目的应用EPP-Spectrum模型评估浙江省艾滋病疫情,为浙江省预防和控制艾滋病提供依据。方法收集浙江省各类艾滋病高危人群规模、艾滋病感染率监测数据、艾滋病抗病毒治疗和人口学信息等资料,采用EPP-Spectrum模型拟合各类人群艾滋病流行曲线,对浙江省艾滋病感染率、现存活病例数、新发感染和死亡情况等进行综合评估。结果截至2016年底,浙江省全人群艾滋病感染率为0.05%(95%CI:0.04%~0.06%)。现存活艾滋病病毒感染者和艾滋病患者(HIV/AIDS)27 542例(95%CI:24 564~31 187例),以性接触传播为主,同性性接触传播占46.94%,异性商业性行为传播占24.43%,非商业性行为(含配偶间)传播占25.29%。2016年HIV新发感染1 714例(95%CI:1 340~2 194例),新发感染例数2014—2016年基本持平,以性接触传播为主,同性性接触传播占47.55%,异性非商业性行为(含配偶间)传播构成呈上升趋势。2016年HIV/AIDS病例死亡642例(95%CI:476~896例),死亡人数呈缓慢增长后出现平台期。2012—2016年艾滋病检测发现和抗病毒治疗比例逐年上升,估计有57.70%的传染源得到控制。结论浙江省艾滋病感染人数缓慢增长,疫情总体处于低流行态势;以男男性行为、异性商业性行为和异性非商业性行为传播为主。
Objective To evaluate the HIV/AIDS epidemic in Zhejiang Province through Estimation and Projection Package （EPP）-Spectrum model and to provide scientific evidence for the control practice of AIDS. Methods Consecutive behavior surveillance data, HIV prevalence, the number of HIV/AIDS patients under highly active anti-retroviral therapy （HAART） and social-demographic data from population census in Zhejiang Province were collected and input into the optimized EPP-Spectrum model. HIV epidemic curves of different sub-population were generated for comprehensive estimation of HIV/AIDS prevalence, people living with HIV/AIDS （PLWHA）, the number of new HIV infection and the death toll in Zhejiang Province. Results It was estimated that by the end of 2016, the HIV infection rate in the whole population was 0.05% （95%C1： 0.04%- 0.06%） . There were a total of 27 542 （95%C1：24 564-31 187） PLWHA in Zhejiang Province, with 46.94% of which by homosexual transmission, 24.43% by commercial heterosexual transmission and 25.29% by non-commercial heterosexual （including spouses） transmission. There were 1 714 （95%C1：1 340-2 194） new infections in 2016 and this number fluctuated slightly from 2014 to 2016. Most of the new HIV/AIDS were infected by sexual transmission, with homosexual transmission accounted for 47.55%; the proportion of non-commercial sex transmission （including spouses） increased year by year. A total of 642 （95%C1： 476-896） PLWHA died in 2016, and the number of death increased slowly and remained stable each year. A total of The proportion of PLWHA being diagnosed and under HAART increased during 2012-2016. It was estimated that 57.70% of PLWHA had been controlled. Conclusion The HIV/AIDS epidemic in Zhejiang Province from 1995 to 2016 increased steadily and was at low prevalence. The main transmission routes were homosexual behaviors, commercialand non-commercial heterosexual behaviors.
作者
杨介者
蒋均
潘晓红
徐云
陈婉君
何林
郑锦雷
YANG Jie-zhe;JIANG Jun;PAN Xiao-hong;XU Yun;CHEN Wan-jun;HE Lin;ZHENG Jin-lei(Department of HIV/AIDS and STDs Prevention and Control,Zhejiang Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Hangzhou,Zhejiang 310051,China)
出处
《预防医学》
2018年第7期649-652,657,共5页
CHINA PREVENTIVE MEDICINE JOURNAL
基金
国家科技重大专项(2012ZX10001-001)
浙江省医药卫生科技项目(2016154151)
