摘要
针对石油开采中存在的能源短缺和能源浪费现象,结合石油产量变化的特点,从数理统计的角度出发,利用SPSS统计软件,运用优化的多元线性回归模型和时间序列预测模型,选取某油田2001—2014年的产油量及影响因素数据,建立石油产量动态预测模型,得出两种模型下2015年的石油产量,并与2015年的实际产量比较,预测误差很小,可见模型的预测精度较高,具有一定的实用性,对石油相关部门的生产规划有一定的借鉴作用.
Aiming at the phenomenon of oil shortage and oil waste in oil field development and combining with the characteristics of oil production change,from the viewpoint of mathematical statistics,we use the SPSS statistical software,the optimization multiple linear regression model and the time series model to select the data of production and influencing factors of one oil field in 2001-2014. The dynamic forecasting models of oil production are established. The oil productions are obtained under the two models. Then we compare that with the actual production in 2015 and find the prediction error is very small. It is clear that the prediction precision of this model is better.This work has a certain practical value. The prediction results have certain reference value to production and planning of the oil related department.
作者
任芳玲
任思东
李佳佳
REN Fangling;REN Sidong;LI Jiajia(College of Mathematics and Computer Science,Yah＇ an University,Yah＇ an 716000,Shaanxi China)
出处
《河南科学》
2018年第6期817-822,共6页
Henan Science
基金
陕西省教育厅科研计划项目(17JK0874)
延安市科研发展计划项目(2017WZZ-03-02)
延安大学大学生创新创业训练计划项目(D2017031)
关键词
石油产量
多元线性回归法
时间序列法
SPSS软件
oil production
multiple linear regression method
time series method
SPSS software
