摘要
高铁客运站最高聚集人数是设计高铁客运站站房规模的主要依据之一,随着高速铁路的不断建设与发展,旅客的出行模式发生了较大变化,高速铁路客运站旅客聚集规律也随之改变。论文在分析现有铁路客运站最高聚集人数研究成果的基础上,对高速铁路客运站最高聚集人数的计算方法进行研究,改进和修正原有的概率计算方法,考虑到列车开行频率、检票人数等因素对高铁客运站聚集人数的影响,认为高速铁路旅客的候车时间分布规律符合对数正态分布,综合建立高速铁路客运站最高聚集人数预测模型,并通过案例计算进行验证。
The maximum aggregate number of high-speed rail terminal is the main basis for designing the terminal scale of the high-speed rail terminal. With the continuous development of high-speed railway, the travel pattern of passengers has undergone great changes and the passenger gathering rules of high-speed rail terminal are also changing. Based on the research results of the maximum aggregate number of existing railway terminals,this paper studied the calculation method of the maximum aggregate number of high-speed railway terminal, improved and modified the original probability calculation method. At the same time, by considering the effects of train frequency and the number of ticket-tipping on the aggregate number of high-speed rail terminal, it finds out that the distribution of waiting time for high-speed railway passengers conforms to the lognormal distribution.Then, it established the maximum aggregate number forecasting model of high-speed railway passenger terminal,and verified the above conclusion through case calculation.
作者
叶玉玲
李文卿
Ye Yuling;Li Wenqing(Key Laboratory of Road and Traffic Engineering of the Ministry of Education,Tongji University,Shanghai 201804,China)
出处
《华东交通大学学报》
2018年第4期76-82,共7页
Journal of East China Jiaotong University
基金
国家重点研发计划(2018YFB1201403)
关键词
高铁客运站
最高聚集人数
候车时间分布
旅客聚集规律
high-speed rail terminal
maximum aggregate number
waiting time distribution
passenger gathering rule
