摘要
结合灰色理论短期预测优势以及马尔科夫预测模型无后效性特点,建立基于灰色-马尔科夫理论的组合预测模型,研究沥青路面性能衰变规律。以重庆某高速公路历年RQI检测数据为例,用MATLAB计算RQI灰色预测值并验证模型的精度;通过灰色预测方程反算使用年限序列,并建立马尔科夫状态转移矩阵,对RQI进行预测。结果表明:灰色预测模型对RQI预测精度达到一级,预测结果可靠性较高;根据灰色-马尔科夫模型,预测RQI衰变规律,对比单一的灰色预测模型,灰色-马尔科夫组合预测模型精度更高,更适用于路面性能的长期预测。
Combining the short-term forecasting advantages of grey theory and the non-after-effect of Markov prediction model, a combined prediction model based on grey-Markov theory is established to study the attenuation law of asphalt pavement performance. Taking the RQI test data of a highway in Chongqing as an example, the RQI grey prediction value is calculated by MATLAB and the accuracy of the model is verified. The age series is inversely calculated by the gray prediction equation, and the Markov state transition matrix is established to predict the RQI. The results show that the RQI prediction accuracy calculated by gray prediction model achieves Grade I and the reliability of the prediction result is high. According to the grey-Markov model, the RQI decay rules can be predicted. Compared with the single grey prediction model, the gray-Markov combination prediction model has higher accuracy, which is more suitable for long-term prediction of pavement performance.
作者
金年生
陈飞
苗超杰
JIN Niansheng;CHEN Fei;MIAO Chaojie
出处
《公路交通技术》
2018年第5期17-20,26,共5页
Technology of Highway and Transport
基金
重庆市社会事业与民生保障科技创新专项项目(cstc2015shms-ztzx30004)
关键词
灰色理论
马尔科夫预测模型
沥青路面性能
衰变规律
grey theory
Markov prediction model
asphalt pavement performance
attenuation law
