摘要
基于哈尔滨市2015年至2017年的空气质量指数AQI数据,运用Fisher有序样品聚类法对数据从时间上进行分割,逐段建立ARMA模型,并对模型进行检验.结果表明哈尔滨空气质量变化规律呈现时段性,可分为供暖期和非供暖期.利用供暖期和非供暖期ARMA模型对哈尔滨AQI进行预测,预测值与实测值基本吻合,整体趋势也能够得到较好的预测.
Based on AQI data of air quality index of Harbin for 2015-2017 years,fisher orderly sample clustering method is used to partition Harbin on time,ARMA model is built and tested paragraph by paragraph. The result shows that the rule of air quality change in Harbin appears the feature of time interval,it can be divided into heating period and non-heating period. The ARMA model of heating period and non-heating period are used to predict the AQI of Harbin. The predicted values are basically consistent with the measured values,and the overall trend can also be predicted better.
作者
孙铭
许梦婷
谢佩锦
曹连英
Sun Ming, Xu Mengting, Xie Peijin, Cao Lianying(Northeast Forestry Universit)
出处
《哈尔滨师范大学自然科学学报》
CAS
2018年第4期21-25,共5页
Natural Science Journal of Harbin Normal University
基金
2017年东北林业大学校级大学生创新创业训练项目(201710225274)
