摘要
利用2002—2015年辽宁省森林火灾资料、2014—2016年卫星监测热点资料以及高空天气图等相关气象资料,采用统计分析、天气学分析和灰色关联分析方法,揭示了辽宁省林火发生及过火面积的特征,探讨了其与节气的关系,并用灰色系统原理定量分析了对影响森林火灾发生期的气象因子。结果表明:春季的3—5月是起火的高发月份,每日10:00—15:00是森林火灾的高发时间,其热点与春分节气密切相关,春分节气可以作为辽宁省火灾易发开始的预警时间点,清明时节成为历年防火最为敏感的关键时期; 4月气温、4月风速、5月相对湿度、5月气温、3月风速是影响森林火灾发生程度的主要因子。根据实地调研的样本数据分析起火与气象条件的关系,提出了辽宁省森林火灾的高发预警时间点和相关气象预警指标,可为林火气象服务提供科学依据。
Based on the bush fire damage observations during 2002-2015,the hot point data from satellite observations from 2014 to 2016 and related upper weather chart,the characteristics of the bush fire and burned area and their relationships with solar terms were investigated using the statistical analyses,synoptic-meteorological techniques and grey correlation analysis method.At the same time,the meteorological factors affecting the occurrence phases of fire damage were quantitatively analyzed.The results indicate that March,April and May in spring are the dominant months during which the bush fire occurs frequently.Most bush fires occur during 10-15 o＇clock（Beijing Time） （2-7 GMT） in these months.The Spring Equinox （4th solar term） is highly correlated to the date when the hot-point on satellite images occurs and therefore is regarded as the beginning time of the fire warning in Liaoning province.In addition,the first 10 day in April （Chinese bright and clear day,5th solar term） becomes the key period for fire protections in every year.The monthly mean air temperature and wind speed in April,the monthly mean air temperature and relative humidity in May and the monthly mean wind speed in March are the main factors causing the occurrences of fire damages.Base on the relationships between the meteorological factors and the occurrences of fire damage from the on-the-spot investigation data,the warning time of high-incidence of bush fire and the related warning meteorological indices are proposed to provide scientific basis to forest fire weather service.
作者
孙虹雨
程攀
程佳悦
朱轶铭
贾斌英
黄阁
陆忠艳
SUN Hong-yu;CHENG Pan;CHENG Jia-yue;ZHU Yi-ming;JIA Bin-ying;HUANG Ge;LU Zhong-yan(Liaoning Meteorological Observatory,Shenyang 110166,China;Liaoning Meteorological Disaster Monitoring and Early Warning Centre,Shenyang 110166,China;Forest Fire Warning Test Center of Liaoning Province,Shenyang 110031,China;Weather Modification Office in Liaoning Province,Shenyang 110166,China)
出处
《气象与环境学报》
2018年第5期128-134,共7页
Journal of Meteorology and Environment
基金
辽宁气象局科研项目(201712)
2018年山洪地质灾害防治气象保障工程(雷电灾害风险普查建设)项目共同资助
关键词
林火
气象因子
节气
天气学方法
灰色关联分析
Forest fire
Meteorological factor
Solar term
Synoptic-meteorological technique
Grey correlation analysis
