摘要
蒙古沙拐枣（Calligonum mongolicum Turcz.）是中国荒漠植被的重要建群种,也是人工固沙造林的优选种。为了阐明气候变化及人类活动对其分布格局的影响,以119个蒙古沙拐枣地理分布信息和24个环境变量为基础,结合CMIP5的缩减全球模型数据,应用MaxEnt模型和Arc GIS空间分析技术,分别构建不同气候情景及人类活动干扰下的蒙古沙拐枣适宜生境预测模型,定量展示未来不同气候变化情景（RCP2. 6,RCP 4. 5,RCP 8. 5）和人类活动干扰下蒙古沙拐枣在我国的分布格局变化。结果表明：训练集的AUC值为0. 958,测试集的AUC值为0. 951,MaxEnt模型的预测结果可靠;影响蒙古沙拐枣分布的主要气候因素是降水量和海拔;人类活动干扰下蒙古沙拐枣的适生比例由13. 04%下降到9. 57%,蒙古沙拐枣的繁殖栖息与人类活动成负相关。当前气候条件下蒙古沙拐枣总适生面积比例为13. 04%,在RCP2. 6、RCP4. 5、RCP8. 5三种情景下至2050s,预测的总适生面积比例为13. 36%、13. 18%和14. 78%;至2070s,预测的总适生面积为13. 39%、12. 76%和12. 71%,适生范围及面积变化趋势各有差异,各级适生区面积及总适生面积有不同程度的增减,且在高浓度排放情景（RCP8. 5）下响应最为明显。
Calligonum mongolicum Turcz. is an important species of vegetation in desert,and is also a preferred species for artificial sand-fixation and afforestation. This study was based on the geographical distribution of 119 geographical distribution data of C. mongolicum and 24 environmental variables. The effects of climate change and human activities on the distribution pattern of C. mongolicum were elucidated using the CMIP5 reduction global model data. The MaxEnt model and ArcGIS spatial analysis means were used to develop the models of predicting suitable habitats of C. mongolicum under different climatic conditions and human activities so as to quantitatively demonstrate the different climate change scenarios（ RCP2. 6,RCP 4. 5,RCP 8. 5） and the change of distribution pattern of C. mongolicum in China under climate change. The results showed that the prediction accuracy of the model was relatively high（ the AUC values of the training data set and the test data set were 0. 958 and 0. 951 respectively）.The main climatic factors affecting the distribution of C. mongolicum were precipitation,topographical factors and elevation,and the disturbance of human activities made the suitable proportion of C. mongolicum decrease from13. 04% to 9. 57%. The breeding habitat of C. mongolicum was negatively correlated with human activities. Under current climatic conditions,the proportions of total suitable area of C. mongolicum was 13. 04%; in the three scenarios of RCP2. 6,RCP4. 5 and RCP8. 5,the predicted proportions of total adaptive area would be 13. 36%,13. 18% and 14. 78% up to the 2050 s,and they would be 13. 39%,12. 76% and 12. 71% up to the 2070 s. The change of scope and area of adaptation is different.
作者
塞依丁·海米提
努尔巴依·阿布都沙力克
李雪萍
邵华
阿尔曼·解思斯
阿腾古丽
Sayit Hamit;Nurbay Abdushalih;LI Xue-ping;SHAO Hua;Arman Jiesisi;Ateng Guli(College of Resources and Environmental Sciences,Xinjiang University,Urumqi 830046,Xinjiang,China;Key Laboratory of Oasis Ecology of Ministry of Education,Xinjiang University,Urumqi 830046,Xinjiang,China;Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Urumqi 830011,Xinjiang,China)
出处
《干旱区研究》
CSCD
北大核心
2018年第6期1450-1458,共9页
Arid Zone Research
基金
国家自然科学基金(41561013)
国家林业局委托项目“新疆重点保护野生植物资源调查(211-62210)”资助
