摘要
合理、真实地评估企业事故的风险等级,对减少风险矩阵法评估时产生的风险结具有重要的作用。以某烟草公司为例,通过德尔菲法遴选风险评估专家,针对事故类型和火灾事故风险因素两方面,采用风险矩阵法和Borda序值法相结合的方式对烟草企业生产安全事故风险等级进行了评估,建立了事故风险综合评估模型,从而减少了风险矩阵中风险结的数量。结果表明:从事故发生可能性(F)、事故后果严重程度(C)和风险值(R)三方面得出的评估结果具有较高的一致性,得出12种事故类型和8个火灾事故风险因素风险等级的排序,可为烟草企业确定主要事故风险、配备应急资源、制定事故风险防范和控制措施提供依据,为提高应急预案编制的针对性提供借鉴。
Assessing the accident risk level of enterprises objectively and accurately plays important role in reducing the number of risk knots during the assessment by the Risk Matrix Method. Taking a tobacco company as an example,this paper selects the risk assessment experts by the Delphi Consultation,and con ducts the accident risk assessment for production safety of tobacco enterprises by combing the Risk Matrix Method with the Borda Count Method in view of the accident risks and fire risks. Finally the paper develops a comprehensive risk evaluation model which reflects preferably the practicability and operability of acci dent risks. The results show that the combination of the Delphi Consultation, the Risk Matrix Method and the Borda Count Method could assess successfully the level of enterprise accident risk and eliminate the risk knots. Furthermore, the discrepancies of the assessment results are verified from the frequency （F）, conse quence（C） ,and risk value （R）and 12 kinds of accidents and tributes to identifying the main risks of accidents, deploying control measures,and enhancing the pertinence of emergenc 8 kinds of fire risks are ranked. The paper con emergency resources, adopting prevention and control measures,and enhancing the pertinence of emergency planning.
作者
胡宜旺
杨立兵
张艳林
郭敏
张俊
昝军
HU Yiwang;YANG Libing;ZHANG Yanlin;GUO Min;ZHANG Jun;ZAN Jun(Jingzhou Municipal Bureau of Tobacco Monopoly,Jingzhou 434000,China;Safety Management Depart,Hubei Provincial Bureau of Tobacco Monopoly,Wuhan 430030,China;State Key Laboratory of Fire Science,University of Science and Technology of China,Hef ei 230026,China;Hubei Provincial Safety Production Emergency Rescue Center,Wuhan 430070,China)
出处
《安全与环境工程》
CAS
北大核心
2018年第6期152-157,166,共7页
Safety and Environmental Engineering
基金
中国烟草总公司湖北省公司"青年人才托举工程"项目(027Y2018-036)
中国烟草学会2017年重点攻关课题(2017015)
国家自然科学基金项目(71704168)
关键词
事故
风险评估
风险矩阵法
Borda序值法
德尔菲法
烟草企业
accident risk assessment
risk matrix approach
Borda count method
Delphi consultation
tobacco enterprise
